How open is Ligue 1?
France · Ligue 1 · Ligue 2 · 1993/94 to 2025/26
Champions: Paris Saint-Germain (13), Lyon (7), Monaco (3), Girondins de Bordeaux (2), Nantes (2), Lille (2), Auxerre (1), Lens (1), Marseille (1), Montpellier (1).
Can a bottom-half club reach the top four?
Of the 120 times a club finished in the bottom half of Ligue 1 between 2004/05 and 2015/16, 29 reached the top four within the next ten seasons: about 1 in 4 (likely range 11%–39%).
The same question in each league (finishes 2004/05–2015/16)
Over time: share reaching the top four within ten seasons, by when the bottom-half finish happened
Does the answer depend on the seasons chosen?
Share of bottom-half finishes followed by a top-four finish, with likely ranges. The main figure uses 2004/05–2015/16 because ten-year outcomes are complete only up to then. Later finishes can only be followed for five seasons.
| Window | England | Spain | Italy | Germany | France |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finishes 2004/05–2015/16, top four within 10 seasons (the main figure) | 8% 2%–16% | 15% 4%–29% | 16% 6%–29% | 27% 11%–43% | 24% 11%–39% |
| Finishes 2004/05–2009/10, within 10 seasons | 5% 0%–15% | 18% 4%–36% | 23% 10%–41% | 31% 10%–54% | 32% 13%–50% |
| Finishes 2010/11–2015/16, within 10 seasons | 12% 0%–25% | 12% 3%–25% | 8% 0%–23% | 22% 7%–40% | 17% 4%–33% |
| Finishes 2011/12–2020/21, within 5 seasons | 6% 0%–13% | 8% 2%–16% | 5% 0%–15% | 11% 3%–24% | 9% 2%–18% |
How do we know?
Every bottom-half finish in the top division was followed forward ten seasons. The periods are short, so single seasons move the lines; the project's registered tests, which use the whole ladder and every season, are on the How it works page.
Realistic ceilings in France
What happened next to clubs in each position (finishes from 2004/05; ten-year goals to 2015/16, five-year goals to 2020/21).
| Clubs that… | …and then |
|---|---|
| Won Ligue 1 | won the league within ten seasons: 8 of 12 (8 of 12; range 17%–89%) finished in the top four again the next season: 18 of 21 (18 of 21; range 44%–98%) |
| Finished 2nd to 4th in Ligue 1 | won the league within ten seasons: about 4 in 10 (15 of 36; range 15%–67%) finished in the top four again the next season: about 4 in 10 (28 of 63; range 26%–59%) |
| Finished 5th to 7th in Ligue 1 | reached the top four within ten seasons: about 6 in 10 (23 of 36; range 39%–89%) won the league within ten seasons: about 2 in 10 (9 of 36; range 7%–51%) |
| Finished 8th to 12th in Ligue 1 | reached the top four within ten seasons: about 4 in 10 (24 of 60; range 18%–62%) reached the top six within ten seasons: about 5 in 10 (29 of 60; range 27%–71%) stayed up for all of the next five seasons: about 6 in 10 (48 of 85; range 41%–71%) |
| Finished 13th or lower in Ligue 1 and stayed up | stayed up for all of the next five seasons: about 5 in 10 (43 of 89; range 35%–61%) reached the top six within ten seasons: about 5 in 10 (28 of 60; range 28%–66%) reached the top four within ten seasons: about 4 in 10 (21 of 60; range 16%–56%) |
| Was relegated from Ligue 1 | were back in the top flight within five seasons: about 4 in 10 (20 of 47; range 26%–56%) reached the top four within ten seasons: about 1 in 18 (2 of 36; range 0%–14%) |
| Was promoted from Ligue 2 | stayed up for all of the next five seasons: about 3 in 10 (16 of 47; range 21%–48%) reached the top six within ten seasons: about 1 in 7 (5 of 36; range 5%–27%) |
| Finished in the top half of Ligue 2 without going up | went up within five seasons: about 4 in 10 (53 of 123; range 32%–54%) reached the top flight within ten seasons: about 7 in 10 (55 of 84; range 48%–80%) |
| Finished in the bottom half of Ligue 2 | went up within five seasons: about 1 in 4 (40 of 170; range 14%–34%) reached the top flight within ten seasons: about 4 in 10 (51 of 120; range 28%–59%) |
Who beat their money?
Of 34 clubs with at least eight seasons of published wage figures in the top two divisions, these finished clearly above or below what their wage bill usually buys. Every other club finished about where its money would put it.
| Club | Places above or below, on average | Seasons |
|---|---|---|
| Clermont | +5.3 | 13 |
| Angers | +2.9 | 13 |
| Brest | +2.4 | 13 |
| Rennes | +1.2 | 13 |
| Chamois Niortais | -1.7 | 9 |
| LB Châteauroux | -3.2 | 9 |
| Nantes | -3.8 | 13 |
How do we know?
See any club page under "Against the money" for the method. A club is listed only when its average gap is clearly larger than chance would produce.
All clubs
Ligue 1 in 2025/26
- Angers
- Auxerre
- Brest
- Le Havre
- Lens
- Lille
- Lorient
- Lyon
- Marseille
- Metz
- Monaco
- Nantes
- Nice
- Paris FC
- Paris Saint-Germain
- Rennes
- Strasbourg
- Toulouse
Ligue 2 in 2025/26
- Amiens
- Annecy
- Bastia
- Boulogne
- Clermont
- Dunkerque
- Grenoble
- Guingamp
- Laval
- Le Mans
- Montpellier
- Nancy
- Pau
- Red Star
- Reims
- Rodez
- Saint-Étienne
- Troyes
Formerly in the divisions covered
- AC Ajaccio
- AC Arles-Avignon
- AS Beauvais
- AS Béziers
- AS Cannes
- Bourges 18
- CA Bastia
- CS Sedan
- Canet Roussillon
- Chamois Niortais
- Dijon FCO
- FC Bourg-Péronnas
- FC Chambly
- FC Gueugnon
- FC Istres
- FC Libourne
- FC Martigues
- FC Mulhouse
- FC Rouen 1899
- FC Sochaux
- Gazélec FC Ajaccio
- Girondins de Bordeaux
- LB Châteauroux
- Louhans-Cuiseaux
- Nîmes Olympique
- Olympique Alès
- Olympique Charleville NA
- Olympique de Valence (old)
- Racing Besançon
- SAS Épinal
- SC Sète
- SC Toulon
- SM Caen
- Stade Briochin
- Stade Poitevin
- Thonon Évian GGFC
- Tours FC
- US Concarneau
- US Créteil Football
- US Orléans
- US Quevilly-Rouen
- Valenciennes FC
- Vannes OC
- Wasquehal FC