Competitive Mobility Project

France

Rennes

2025/26: 6th in Ligue 1 · 2026/27: Ligue 1

How high can Rennes realistically go?

Based on finishing 6th in Ligue 1 in 2025/26

About 6 in 10

Of the 36 times a club finished 5th to 7th in Ligue 1 between 2004/05 and 2015/16, 23 reached the top four within ten seasons.

23 of 36 (64%); likely range 39%–89%, 14 different clubs.

Won the league within ten seasonsabout 2 in 10
9 of 36; range 7%–51%

Rennes itself: 10 of the last 10 seasons in Ligue 1; 2 top-four finishes.

Taking its wage bill into account

Of clubs in a similar position with a wage bill like Rennes's — the 3rd highest of 39 in the top two divisions in 2022/23, 2.3 times the average — this share went on to:

Reached the top four within five seasonsabout 8 in 10
range 40%–99%
How is this worked out?

A model fitted on every club-season with a published wage bill (England from 2011/12, France from 2008/09) relates each goal to two things: where the club finished and how its wage bill compared with the season's average. Five-year goals are used because the wage records are too recent for ten-year ones. We checked the model on clubs it had not seen: adding the wage bill makes the figures more accurate for most goals, and where it does not, the page says so. The range comes from refitting the model on clubs drawn at random with replacement. Like every figure here, it describes clubs like this one, not a forecast for this club; wage bills include all staff, not only players. This model was added after the registered tests and is descriptive, not one of them.

How do we know?

We took every season since 2004/05 in which a club finished in the same part of the same league, and followed each club forward. The figure is the share that reached each goal. Ten-year goals use finishes from 2004/05 to 2015/16, five-year goals from 2004/05 to 2020/21, so every case has had the full time to play out; results run to the end of 2025/26.

It describes what happened to clubs in this position, not a forecast for one club. A club with much more money or history than is usual for its position has better chances than the figure suggests, which is why the club's own record is shown underneath.

The likely range is a 95% interval worked out by resampling clubs rather than seasons, because the same club often appears several times. It is wide where only a few clubs have been in a position, and two leagues whose ranges overlap may not really differ. Reserve teams such as Barcelona B or Real Madrid Castilla are left out of these counts, because they cannot be promoted into their first team's division.

Counts: reached the top four within ten seasons: 23 of 36; won the league within ten seasons: 9 of 36.

The story so far

Rennes has played 33 seasons in the divisions covered here since 1993/94: 32 in Ligue 1 and 1 in Ligue 2. It has been in Ligue 1 since 1994/95 (32 seasons), after 1 season in Ligue 2. Its best finish was 3rd in Ligue 1, in 2006/07. Its biggest climb took five seasons: from 2nd in Ligue 2 in 1993/94 to 5th in Ligue 1 in 1998/99. It has been promoted once and never relegated.

Final position each seasonRinged dots are titles
2025/262021/222017/182013/142009/102005/062001/021997/981993/941stLigue 1Ligue 2
How to read this chart

Every club in the divisions covered is placed on one ladder each season: the champions are 1st, and the top club of the second division comes straight after the bottom club of the first. Shaded bands are the divisions. Hover over or tap a dot for the season.

33seasons since 1993/94
32seasons in Ligue 1
0league titles
4top-four finishes
1promotions
0relegations

Against the money

Finished 1 place above its money

Over 13 seasons, Rennes finished on average 1.2 places higher than clubs with the same wage bill usually finish. The gap is too large to be put down to chance. It finished above its money in 8 of 13 seasons with published figures.

€116mwage bill, 2022/23
3rdhighest of 39 clubs with published accounts
4thfinish in Ligue 1, 2022/23
Where Rennes finishedWhere its wage bill normally finishes
1st2022/232020/212018/192016/172014/152012/132010/112008/09Ligue 1Ligue 2
Season by season
SeasonFinishWage billWage rankPlaces above its money
2022/234th, Ligue 1€116m3rd of 39-0.8
2021/225th, Ligue 1€68m6th of 39+0.4
2020/216th, Ligue 1€75m5th of 39+0.5
2019/203rd, Ligue 1€64m6th of 39+3.8
2018/1910th, Ligue 1€64m5th of 39-2.5
2017/185th, Ligue 1€50m7th of 39+2.6
2016/179th, Ligue 1€41m8th of 38-0.9
2015/168th, Ligue 1€44m7th of 38-0.5
2014/159th, Ligue 1€40m7th of 38-1.2
2011/126th, Ligue 1€43m5th of 39+4.1
2010/116th, Ligue 1€36m6th of 37+3.9
2009/109th, Ligue 1€36m7th of 38+1.8
2008/097th, Ligue 1€37m5th of 38+4.0
How do we know?

For every season, we compare each club's wage bill with the average in the top two divisions, and work out the finish that wage bill usually brings, allowing for differences between seasons and assuming a bigger wage bill never lowers the expected finish. The gap between that and the actual finish, averaged over the seasons, is the figure above. An overall verdict needs at least eight seasons, and a signed number is given only when the gap is clearly larger than chance.

Wage bills are total payroll including social charges from the DNCG's published club accounts, checked against each report's own cost totals. Group (consolidated) accounts are left out.

On average, most of a big over-performance fades: clubs that finished at least four places above their money (on average 6.4 places) were +2.7 places the next season, so about 57% of it disappeared and the rest persisted. Some clubs beat their money season after season. It mixes good management, luck and resources the measure cannot see, so it is not a score for how well a club is run.

Clubs with a similar path

Clubs whose finishing positions over the last 15 seasons were closest to Rennes's, with recent seasons counting more.

In France

MarseilleFrance · 5th in Ligue 1, 2025/26LyonFrance · 4th in Ligue 1, 2025/26LilleFrance · 3rd in Ligue 1, 2025/26NiceFrance · 16th in Ligue 1, 2025/26

Elsewhere in Europe

LazioItaly · 9th in Serie A, 2025/26Real SociedadSpain · 10th in LaLiga, 2025/26Manchester UnitedEngland · 3rd in the Premier League, 2025/26

Compare Rennes with another club

Sources