Competitive Mobility Project

France

Auxerre

2025/26: 15th in Ligue 1 · 2026/27: Ligue 1

How high can Auxerre realistically go?

Based on finishing 15th in Ligue 1 in 2025/26

About 5 in 10

Of the 89 times a club finished 13th or lower in Ligue 1 and stayed up between 2004/05 and 2020/21, 43 stayed up for all of the next five seasons.

43 of 89 (48%); likely range 35%–61%, 31 different clubs.

Reached the top six within ten seasonsabout 5 in 10
28 of 60; range 28%–66%
Reached the top four within ten seasonsabout 4 in 10
21 of 60; range 16%–56%

Auxerre itself: 3 of the last 10 seasons in Ligue 1.

Taking its wage bill into account

Of clubs in a similar position with a wage bill like Auxerre's — the 18th highest of 39 in the top two divisions in 2022/23, 0.6 times the average — this share went on to:

Reached the top four within five seasonsabout 1 in 25
range 0%–14%
Stayed in the top flight for all of the next five seasonsabout 1 in 4
range 6%–44%
How is this worked out?

A model fitted on every club-season with a published wage bill (England from 2011/12, France from 2008/09) relates each goal to two things: where the club finished and how its wage bill compared with the season's average. Five-year goals are used because the wage records are too recent for ten-year ones. We checked the model on clubs it had not seen: adding the wage bill makes the figures more accurate for most goals, and where it does not, the page says so. The range comes from refitting the model on clubs drawn at random with replacement. Like every figure here, it describes clubs like this one, not a forecast for this club; wage bills include all staff, not only players. This model was added after the registered tests and is descriptive, not one of them.

How do we know?

We took every season since 2004/05 in which a club finished in the same part of the same league, and followed each club forward. The figure is the share that reached each goal. Ten-year goals use finishes from 2004/05 to 2015/16, five-year goals from 2004/05 to 2020/21, so every case has had the full time to play out; results run to the end of 2025/26.

It describes what happened to clubs in this position, not a forecast for one club. A club with much more money or history than is usual for its position has better chances than the figure suggests, which is why the club's own record is shown underneath.

The likely range is a 95% interval worked out by resampling clubs rather than seasons, because the same club often appears several times. It is wide where only a few clubs have been in a position, and two leagues whose ranges overlap may not really differ. Reserve teams such as Barcelona B or Real Madrid Castilla are left out of these counts, because they cannot be promoted into their first team's division.

Counts: stayed up for all of the next five seasons: 43 of 89; reached the top six within ten seasons: 28 of 60; reached the top four within ten seasons: 21 of 60.

The story so far

Auxerre has played 33 seasons in the divisions covered here since 1993/94: 22 in Ligue 1 and 11 in Ligue 2. It has been in Ligue 1 since 2024/25 (2 seasons), after 1 season in Ligue 2. It won Ligue 1 once (1995/96). Its biggest climb took five seasons: from 11th in Ligue 2 in 2019/20 to 11th in Ligue 1 in 2024/25. It has been promoted twice and relegated twice.

Final position each seasonRinged dots are titles
2025/262021/222017/182013/142009/102005/062001/021997/981993/941stLigue 1Ligue 2
How to read this chart

Every club in the divisions covered is placed on one ladder each season: the champions are 1st, and the top club of the second division comes straight after the bottom club of the first. Shaded bands are the divisions. Hover over or tap a dot for the season.

33seasons since 1993/94
22seasons in Ligue 1
1league titles
6top-four finishes
2promotions
2relegations

Against the money

About where its money would put it

Over 13 seasons, the average gap was -1.6 places, which is within what chance alone would produce. It finished above its money in 6 of 13 seasons with published figures.

€30mwage bill, 2022/23
18thhighest of 39 clubs with published accounts
17thfinish in Ligue 1, 2022/23
Where Auxerre finishedWhere its wage bill normally finishes
1st2022/232020/212018/192016/172014/152012/132010/112008/09Ligue 1Ligue 2
Season by season
SeasonFinishWage billWage rankPlaces above its money
2022/2317th, Ligue 1€30m18th of 39+0.9
2021/223rd, Ligue 2€15m21st of 39+1.8
2020/216th, Ligue 2€15m22nd of 39-0.1
2019/2011th, Ligue 2€14m24th of 39-4.8
2018/1915th, Ligue 2€14m24th of 39-8.1
2017/1811th, Ligue 2€14m23rd of 39-4.0
2016/1717th, Ligue 2€10m24th of 38-9.5
2015/168th, Ligue 2€8.1m26th of 38+1.2
2014/159th, Ligue 2€9.0m24th of 38-1.8
2011/1220th, Ligue 1€30m9th of 39-7.5
2010/119th, Ligue 1€33m7th of 37+0.9
2009/103rd, Ligue 1€32m8th of 38+7.8
2008/098th, Ligue 1€30m11th of 38+3.0
How do we know?

For every season, we compare each club's wage bill with the average in the top two divisions, and work out the finish that wage bill usually brings, allowing for differences between seasons and assuming a bigger wage bill never lowers the expected finish. The gap between that and the actual finish, averaged over the seasons, is the figure above. An overall verdict needs at least eight seasons, and a signed number is given only when the gap is clearly larger than chance.

Wage bills are total payroll including social charges from the DNCG's published club accounts, checked against each report's own cost totals. Group (consolidated) accounts are left out.

On average, most of a big over-performance fades: clubs that finished at least four places above their money (on average 6.4 places) were +2.7 places the next season, so about 57% of it disappeared and the rest persisted. Some clubs beat their money season after season. It mixes good management, luck and resources the measure cannot see, so it is not a score for how well a club is run.

Clubs with a similar path

Clubs whose finishing positions over the last 15 seasons were closest to Auxerre's, with recent seasons counting more.

In France

Le HavreFrance · 14th in Ligue 1, 2025/26ClermontFrance · 13th in Ligue 2, 2025/26BrestFrance · 12th in Ligue 1, 2025/26TroyesFrance · 1st in Ligue 2, 2025/26

Elsewhere in Europe

Nottingham ForestEngland · 16th in the Premier League, 2025/26FC St. PauliGermany · 18th in the Bundesliga, 2025/26VfL BochumGermany · 9th in 2. Bundesliga, 2025/26

Compare Auxerre with another club

Sources