Pau has played 6 seasons in the divisions covered here since 2020/21: 6 in Ligue 2. It has been in Ligue 2 since 2020/21 (6 seasons). Its best finish was 9th in Ligue 2, in 2025/26. It has been promoted once and never relegated.
Pau
2025/26: 9th in Ligue 2
How high can Pau realistically go?
Based on finishing 9th in Ligue 2 in 2025/26
About 4 in 10
Of the 123 times a club finished in the top half of Ligue 2 without going up between 2004/05 and 2020/21, 53 went up within five seasons.
53 of 123 (43%); likely range 32%–54%, 42 different clubs.
| Reached the top flight within ten seasons | about 7 in 10 55 of 84; range 48%–80% |
Pau itself: none of the last 10 seasons in Ligue 1.
Taking its wage bill into account
Of clubs in a similar position with a wage bill like Pau's — the 37th highest of 39 in the top two divisions in 2022/23, 0.1 times the average — this share went on to:
| Were in the top flight within five seasons | about 1 in 8 range 2%–26% |
How is this worked out?
A model fitted on every club-season with a published wage bill (England from 2011/12, France from 2008/09) relates each goal to two things: where the club finished and how its wage bill compared with the season's average. Five-year goals are used because the wage records are too recent for ten-year ones. We checked the model on clubs it had not seen: adding the wage bill makes the figures more accurate for most goals, and where it does not, the page says so. The range comes from refitting the model on clubs drawn at random with replacement. Like every figure here, it describes clubs like this one, not a forecast for this club; wage bills include all staff, not only players. This model was added after the registered tests and is descriptive, not one of them.
How do we know?
We took every season since 2004/05 in which a club finished in the same part of the same league, and followed each club forward. The figure is the share that reached each goal. Ten-year goals use finishes from 2004/05 to 2015/16, five-year goals from 2004/05 to 2020/21, so every case has had the full time to play out; results run to the end of 2025/26.
It describes what happened to clubs in this position, not a forecast for one club. A club with much more money or history than is usual for its position has better chances than the figure suggests, which is why the club's own record is shown underneath.
The likely range is a 95% interval worked out by resampling clubs rather than seasons, because the same club often appears several times. It is wide where only a few clubs have been in a position, and two leagues whose ranges overlap may not really differ. Reserve teams such as Barcelona B or Real Madrid Castilla are left out of these counts, because they cannot be promoted into their first team's division.
Counts: went up within five seasons: 53 of 123; reached the top flight within ten seasons: 55 of 84.
The story so far
Final position each seasonRinged dots are titles
How to read this chart
Every club in the divisions covered is placed on one ladder each season: the champions are 1st, and the top club of the second division comes straight after the bottom club of the first. Shaded bands are the divisions. Hover over or tap a dot for the season.
6seasons since 1993/94
0seasons in Ligue 1
0league titles
0top-four finishes
1promotions
0relegations
Against the money
No overall verdict: 3 seasons with published wage figures, fewer than the eight needed.
€5.8mwage bill, 2022/23
37thhighest of 39 clubs with published accounts
13thfinish in Ligue 2, 2022/23
Where Pau finishedWhere its wage bill normally finishes
Season by season
| Season | Finish | Wage bill | Wage rank | Places above its money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | 13th, Ligue 2 | €5.8m | 37th of 39 | +1.2 |
| 2021/22 | 10th, Ligue 2 | €4.6m | 39th of 39 | +4.6 |
| 2020/21 | 14th, Ligue 2 | €3.8m | 38th of 39 | +1.7 |
How do we know?
For every season, we compare each club's wage bill with the average in the top two divisions, and work out the finish that wage bill usually brings, allowing for differences between seasons and assuming a bigger wage bill never lowers the expected finish. The gap between that and the actual finish, averaged over the seasons, is the figure above. An overall verdict needs at least eight seasons, and a signed number is given only when the gap is clearly larger than chance.
Wage bills are total payroll including social charges from the DNCG's published club accounts, checked against each report's own cost totals. Group (consolidated) accounts are left out.
On average, most of a big over-performance fades: clubs that finished at least four places above their money (on average 6.4 places) were +2.7 places the next season, so about 57% of it disappeared and the rest persisted. Some clubs beat their money season after season. It mixes good management, luck and resources the measure cannot see, so it is not a score for how well a club is run.
Sources
- Final tables to 2025/26. Positions are worked out from match results.
- Relegations include dropping out of the divisions covered.
- All figures can be downloaded on the data page. Spotted a mistake? Report it with a source.