Competitive Mobility Project

France

Le Mans

2025/26: 2nd in Ligue 2, promoted · 2026/27: Ligue 1

How high can Le Mans realistically go?

Based on finishing 2nd in Ligue 2 in 2025/26 and going up

About 3 in 10

Of the 47 times a club was promoted from Ligue 2 between 2004/05 and 2020/21, 16 stayed up for all of the next five seasons.

16 of 47 (34%); likely range 21%–48%, 29 different clubs.

Reached the top six within ten seasonsabout 1 in 7
5 of 36; range 5%–27%

Le Mans itself: none of the last 10 seasons in Ligue 1.

How do we know?

We took every season since 2004/05 in which a club finished in the same part of the same league, and followed each club forward. The figure is the share that reached each goal. Ten-year goals use finishes from 2004/05 to 2015/16, five-year goals from 2004/05 to 2020/21, so every case has had the full time to play out; results run to the end of 2025/26.

It describes what happened to clubs in this position, not a forecast for one club. A club with much more money or history than is usual for its position has better chances than the figure suggests, which is why the club's own record is shown underneath.

The likely range is a 95% interval worked out by resampling clubs rather than seasons, because the same club often appears several times. It is wide where only a few clubs have been in a position, and two leagues whose ranges overlap may not really differ. Reserve teams such as Barcelona B or Real Madrid Castilla are left out of these counts, because they cannot be promoted into their first team's division.

Counts: stayed up for all of the next five seasons: 16 of 47; reached the top six within ten seasons: 5 of 36.

The story so far

Le Mans has played 22 seasons in the divisions covered here since 1993/94: 6 in Ligue 1 and 16 in Ligue 2. It returned to Ligue 2 in 2025/26 after 5 seasons outside the divisions covered. It goes up to Ligue 1 for 2026/27. Its best finish was 9th in Ligue 1, in 2007/08. Its biggest climb took five seasons: from 14th in Ligue 2 in 2000/01 to 11th in Ligue 1 in 2005/06. It has been promoted 5 times and relegated 4 times.

Final position each seasonRinged dots are titles
2025/262021/222017/182013/142009/102005/062001/021997/981993/941stLigue 1Ligue 2
How to read this chart

Every club in the divisions covered is placed on one ladder each season: the champions are 1st, and the top club of the second division comes straight after the bottom club of the first. Shaded bands are the divisions. Hover over or tap a dot for the season.

22seasons since 1993/94
6seasons in Ligue 1
0league titles
0top-four finishes
5promotions
4relegations

Against the money

No overall verdict: 5 seasons with published wage figures, fewer than the eight needed.

€5.6mwage bill, 2019/20
34thhighest of 39 clubs with published accounts
19thfinish in Ligue 2, 2019/20
Where Le Mans finishedWhere its wage bill normally finishes
1st2019/202017/182015/162013/142011/122009/10Ligue 1Ligue 2
Season by season
SeasonFinishWage billWage rankPlaces above its money
2019/2019th, Ligue 2€5.6m34th of 39-4.6
2011/1217th, Ligue 2€10m24th of 39-7.5
2010/114th, Ligue 2€12m19th of 37+0.1
2009/1018th, Ligue 1€20m16th of 38-2.7
2008/0916th, Ligue 1€24m14th of 38-1.7
How do we know?

For every season, we compare each club's wage bill with the average in the top two divisions, and work out the finish that wage bill usually brings, allowing for differences between seasons and assuming a bigger wage bill never lowers the expected finish. The gap between that and the actual finish, averaged over the seasons, is the figure above. An overall verdict needs at least eight seasons, and a signed number is given only when the gap is clearly larger than chance.

Wage bills are total payroll including social charges from the DNCG's published club accounts, checked against each report's own cost totals. Group (consolidated) accounts are left out.

On average, most of a big over-performance fades: clubs that finished at least four places above their money (on average 6.4 places) were +2.7 places the next season, so about 57% of it disappeared and the rest persisted. Some clubs beat their money season after season. It mixes good management, luck and resources the measure cannot see, so it is not a score for how well a club is run.

Sources