Competitive Mobility Project

France

Troyes

2025/26: 1st in Ligue 2, promoted · 2026/27: Ligue 1

How high can Troyes realistically go?

Based on finishing 1st in Ligue 2 in 2025/26 and going up

About 3 in 10

Of the 47 times a club was promoted from Ligue 2 between 2004/05 and 2020/21, 16 stayed up for all of the next five seasons.

16 of 47 (34%); likely range 21%–48%, 29 different clubs.

Reached the top six within ten seasonsabout 1 in 7
5 of 36; range 5%–27%

Troyes itself: 3 of the last 10 seasons in Ligue 1.

How do we know?

We took every season since 2004/05 in which a club finished in the same part of the same league, and followed each club forward. The figure is the share that reached each goal. Ten-year goals use finishes from 2004/05 to 2015/16, five-year goals from 2004/05 to 2020/21, so every case has had the full time to play out; results run to the end of 2025/26.

It describes what happened to clubs in this position, not a forecast for one club. A club with much more money or history than is usual for its position has better chances than the figure suggests, which is why the club's own record is shown underneath.

The likely range is a 95% interval worked out by resampling clubs rather than seasons, because the same club often appears several times. It is wide where only a few clubs have been in a position, and two leagues whose ranges overlap may not really differ. Reserve teams such as Barcelona B or Real Madrid Castilla are left out of these counts, because they cannot be promoted into their first team's division.

Counts: stayed up for all of the next five seasons: 16 of 47; reached the top six within ten seasons: 5 of 36.

The story so far

Troyes has played 29 seasons in the divisions covered here since 1996/97: 11 in Ligue 1 and 18 in Ligue 2. It has been in Ligue 2 since 2023/24 (3 seasons), after 2 seasons in Ligue 1. It goes up to Ligue 1 for 2026/27. Its best finish was 7th in Ligue 1, in 2000/01. Its biggest climb took five seasons: from 20th in Ligue 2 in 1996/97 to 7th in Ligue 1 in 2001/02. It has been promoted 9 times and relegated 7 times.

Final position each seasonRinged dots are titles
2025/262021/222017/182013/142009/102005/062001/021997/981993/941stLigue 1Ligue 2
How to read this chart

Every club in the divisions covered is placed on one ladder each season: the champions are 1st, and the top club of the second division comes straight after the bottom club of the first. Shaded bands are the divisions. Hover over or tap a dot for the season.

29seasons since 1993/94
11seasons in Ligue 1
0league titles
0top-four finishes
9promotions
7relegations

Against the money

About where its money would put it

Over 12 seasons, the average gap was +0.8 places, which is within what chance alone would produce. It finished above its money in 8 of 12 seasons with published figures.

€38mwage bill, 2022/23
14thhighest of 39 clubs with published accounts
19thfinish in Ligue 1, 2022/23
Where Troyes finishedWhere its wage bill normally finishes
1st2022/232020/212018/192016/172014/152012/132010/112008/09Ligue 1Ligue 2
Season by season
SeasonFinishWage billWage rankPlaces above its money
2022/2319th, Ligue 1€38m14th of 39-4.9
2021/2215th, Ligue 1€35m13th of 39-0.6
2020/211st, Ligue 2€14m24th of 39+4.9
2019/204th, Ligue 2€9.5m27th of 39+4.5
2018/193rd, Ligue 2€12m27th of 39+3.9
2017/1819th, Ligue 1€16m20th of 39+3.8
2016/173rd, Ligue 2€10m23rd of 38+4.5
2015/1620th, Ligue 1€14m20th of 38+1.8
2014/151st, Ligue 2€12m20th of 38+5.3
2011/123rd, Ligue 2€10m23rd of 39+6.5
2010/1116th, Ligue 2€7.7m28th of 37-6.7
2008/0919th, Ligue 2€10m23rd of 38-13.7
How do we know?

For every season, we compare each club's wage bill with the average in the top two divisions, and work out the finish that wage bill usually brings, allowing for differences between seasons and assuming a bigger wage bill never lowers the expected finish. The gap between that and the actual finish, averaged over the seasons, is the figure above. An overall verdict needs at least eight seasons, and a signed number is given only when the gap is clearly larger than chance.

Wage bills are total payroll including social charges from the DNCG's published club accounts, checked against each report's own cost totals. Group (consolidated) accounts are left out.

On average, most of a big over-performance fades: clubs that finished at least four places above their money (on average 6.4 places) were +2.7 places the next season, so about 57% of it disappeared and the rest persisted. Some clubs beat their money season after season. It mixes good management, luck and resources the measure cannot see, so it is not a score for how well a club is run.

Clubs with a similar path

Clubs whose finishing positions over the last 15 seasons were closest to Troyes's, with recent seasons counting more.

In France

GuingampFrance · 11th in Ligue 2, 2025/26Le HavreFrance · 14th in Ligue 1, 2025/26AngersFrance · 13th in Ligue 1, 2025/26ClermontFrance · 13th in Ligue 2, 2025/26

Elsewhere in Europe

WatfordEngland · 16th in the Championship, 2025/26MiddlesbroughEngland · 5th in the Championship, 2025/26Norwich CityEngland · 9th in the Championship, 2025/26

Compare Troyes with another club

Sources