Marseille has played 33 seasons in the divisions covered here since 1993/94: 31 in Ligue 1 and 2 in Ligue 2. It has been in Ligue 1 since 1996/97 (30 seasons), after 2 seasons in Ligue 2. It won Ligue 1 once (2009/10). It has been promoted once and relegated once.
Marseille
2025/26: 5th in Ligue 1 · 2026/27: Ligue 1
How high can Marseille realistically go?
Based on finishing 5th in Ligue 1 in 2025/26
About 6 in 10
Of the 36 times a club finished 5th to 7th in Ligue 1 between 2004/05 and 2015/16, 23 reached the top four within ten seasons.
23 of 36 (64%); likely range 39%–89%, 14 different clubs.
| Won the league within ten seasons | about 2 in 10 9 of 36; range 7%–51% |
Marseille itself: 10 of the last 10 seasons in Ligue 1; 5 top-four finishes.
Taking its wage bill into account
Of clubs in a similar position with a wage bill like Marseille's — the 2nd highest of 39 in the top two divisions in 2022/23, 3.0 times the average — this share went on to:
| Reached the top four within five seasons | about 9 in 10 range 49%–100% |
How is this worked out?
A model fitted on every club-season with a published wage bill (England from 2011/12, France from 2008/09) relates each goal to two things: where the club finished and how its wage bill compared with the season's average. Five-year goals are used because the wage records are too recent for ten-year ones. We checked the model on clubs it had not seen: adding the wage bill makes the figures more accurate for most goals, and where it does not, the page says so. The range comes from refitting the model on clubs drawn at random with replacement. Like every figure here, it describes clubs like this one, not a forecast for this club; wage bills include all staff, not only players. This model was added after the registered tests and is descriptive, not one of them.
How do we know?
We took every season since 2004/05 in which a club finished in the same part of the same league, and followed each club forward. The figure is the share that reached each goal. Ten-year goals use finishes from 2004/05 to 2015/16, five-year goals from 2004/05 to 2020/21, so every case has had the full time to play out; results run to the end of 2025/26.
It describes what happened to clubs in this position, not a forecast for one club. A club with much more money or history than is usual for its position has better chances than the figure suggests, which is why the club's own record is shown underneath.
The likely range is a 95% interval worked out by resampling clubs rather than seasons, because the same club often appears several times. It is wide where only a few clubs have been in a position, and two leagues whose ranges overlap may not really differ. Reserve teams such as Barcelona B or Real Madrid Castilla are left out of these counts, because they cannot be promoted into their first team's division.
Counts: reached the top four within ten seasons: 23 of 36; won the league within ten seasons: 9 of 36.
The story so far
Final position each seasonRinged dots are titles
How to read this chart
Every club in the divisions covered is placed on one ladder each season: the champions are 1st, and the top club of the second division comes straight after the bottom club of the first. Shaded bands are the divisions. Hover over or tap a dot for the season.
33seasons since 1993/94
31seasons in Ligue 1
1league titles
16top-four finishes
1promotions
1relegations
Against the money
About where its money would put it
Over 13 seasons, the average gap was -0.2 places, which is within what chance alone would produce. It finished above its money in 7 of 13 seasons with published figures.
€147mwage bill, 2022/23
2ndhighest of 39 clubs with published accounts
3rdfinish in Ligue 1, 2022/23
Where Marseille finishedWhere its wage bill normally finishes
Season by season
| Season | Finish | Wage bill | Wage rank | Places above its money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | 3rd, Ligue 1 | €147m | 2nd of 39 | +0.2 |
| 2021/22 | 2nd, Ligue 1 | €135m | 2nd of 39 | -0.0 |
| 2020/21 | 5th, Ligue 1 | €122m | 2nd of 39 | -1.9 |
| 2019/20 | 2nd, Ligue 1 | €118m | 3rd of 39 | +1.4 |
| 2018/19 | 5th, Ligue 1 | €127m | 3rd of 39 | -0.9 |
| 2017/18 | 4th, Ligue 1 | €125m | 3rd of 39 | +0.2 |
| 2016/17 | 5th, Ligue 1 | €88m | 3rd of 38 | -0.3 |
| 2015/16 | 13th, Ligue 1 | €93m | 2nd of 38 | -8.9 |
| 2014/15 | 4th, Ligue 1 | €97m | 2nd of 38 | +0.4 |
| 2011/12 | 10th, Ligue 1 | €98m | 2nd of 39 | -3.3 |
| 2010/11 | 2nd, Ligue 1 | €101m | 1st of 37 | +1.3 |
| 2009/10 | 1st, Ligue 1 | €92m | 1st of 38 | +3.3 |
| 2008/09 | 2nd, Ligue 1 | €75m | 1st of 38 | +5.6 |
How do we know?
For every season, we compare each club's wage bill with the average in the top two divisions, and work out the finish that wage bill usually brings, allowing for differences between seasons and assuming a bigger wage bill never lowers the expected finish. The gap between that and the actual finish, averaged over the seasons, is the figure above. An overall verdict needs at least eight seasons, and a signed number is given only when the gap is clearly larger than chance.
Wage bills are total payroll including social charges from the DNCG's published club accounts, checked against each report's own cost totals. Group (consolidated) accounts are left out.
On average, most of a big over-performance fades: clubs that finished at least four places above their money (on average 6.4 places) were +2.7 places the next season, so about 57% of it disappeared and the rest persisted. Some clubs beat their money season after season. It mixes good management, luck and resources the measure cannot see, so it is not a score for how well a club is run.
Clubs with a similar path
Clubs whose finishing positions over the last 15 seasons were closest to Marseille's, with recent seasons counting more.
In France
LyonFrance · 4th in Ligue 1, 2025/26Paris Saint-GermainFrance · 1st in Ligue 1, 2025/26RennesFrance · 6th in Ligue 1, 2025/26LilleFrance · 3rd in Ligue 1, 2025/26
Elsewhere in Europe
LiverpoolEngland · 5th in the Premier League, 2025/26NapoliItaly · 2nd in Serie A, 2025/26Atlético MadridSpain · 4th in LaLiga, 2025/26
Compare Marseille with another club
Sources
- Final tables to 2025/26. Positions are worked out from match results.
- Relegations include dropping out of the divisions covered.
- All figures can be downloaded on the data page. Spotted a mistake? Report it with a source.