Competitive Mobility Project

France

Clermont

2025/26: 13th in Ligue 2

How high can Clermont realistically go?

Based on finishing 13th in Ligue 2 in 2025/26

About 1 in 4

Of the 170 times a club finished in the bottom half of Ligue 2 between 2004/05 and 2020/21, 40 went up within five seasons.

40 of 170 (24%); likely range 14%–34%, 51 different clubs.

Reached the top flight within ten seasonsabout 4 in 10
51 of 120; range 28%–59%

Clermont itself: 3 of the last 10 seasons in Ligue 1.

Taking its wage bill into account

Of clubs in a similar position with a wage bill like Clermont's — the 20th highest of 39 in the top two divisions in 2022/23, 0.5 times the average — this share went on to:

Were in the top flight within five seasonsabout 4 in 10
range 28%–64%
How is this worked out?

A model fitted on every club-season with a published wage bill (England from 2011/12, France from 2008/09) relates each goal to two things: where the club finished and how its wage bill compared with the season's average. Five-year goals are used because the wage records are too recent for ten-year ones. We checked the model on clubs it had not seen: adding the wage bill makes the figures more accurate for most goals, and where it does not, the page says so. The range comes from refitting the model on clubs drawn at random with replacement. Like every figure here, it describes clubs like this one, not a forecast for this club; wage bills include all staff, not only players. This model was added after the registered tests and is descriptive, not one of them.

How do we know?

We took every season since 2004/05 in which a club finished in the same part of the same league, and followed each club forward. The figure is the share that reached each goal. Ten-year goals use finishes from 2004/05 to 2015/16, five-year goals from 2004/05 to 2020/21, so every case has had the full time to play out; results run to the end of 2025/26.

It describes what happened to clubs in this position, not a forecast for one club. A club with much more money or history than is usual for its position has better chances than the figure suggests, which is why the club's own record is shown underneath.

The likely range is a 95% interval worked out by resampling clubs rather than seasons, because the same club often appears several times. It is wide where only a few clubs have been in a position, and two leagues whose ranges overlap may not really differ. Reserve teams such as Barcelona B or Real Madrid Castilla are left out of these counts, because they cannot be promoted into their first team's division.

Counts: went up within five seasons: 40 of 170; reached the top flight within ten seasons: 51 of 120.

The story so far

Clermont has played 23 seasons in the divisions covered here since 2002/03: 3 in Ligue 1 and 20 in Ligue 2. It has been in Ligue 2 since 2024/25 (2 seasons), after 3 seasons in Ligue 1. Its best finish was 8th in Ligue 1, in 2022/23. Its biggest climb took five seasons: from 6th in Ligue 2 in 2017/18 to 8th in Ligue 1 in 2022/23. It has been promoted 3 times and relegated twice.

Final position each seasonRinged dots are titles
2025/262021/222017/182013/142009/102005/062001/021997/981993/941stLigue 1Ligue 2
How to read this chart

Every club in the divisions covered is placed on one ladder each season: the champions are 1st, and the top club of the second division comes straight after the bottom club of the first. Shaded bands are the divisions. Hover over or tap a dot for the season.

23seasons since 1993/94
3seasons in Ligue 1
0league titles
0top-four finishes
3promotions
2relegations

Against the money

Finished 5 places above its money

Over 13 seasons, Clermont finished on average 5.3 places higher than clubs with the same wage bill usually finish. The gap is too large to be put down to chance. It finished above its money in 11 of 13 seasons with published figures.

€25mwage bill, 2022/23
20thhighest of 39 clubs with published accounts
8thfinish in Ligue 1, 2022/23
Where Clermont finishedWhere its wage bill normally finishes
1st2022/232020/212018/192016/172014/152012/132010/112008/09Ligue 1Ligue 2
Season by season
SeasonFinishWage billWage rankPlaces above its money
2022/238th, Ligue 1€25m20th of 39+12.8
2021/2217th, Ligue 1€18m20th of 39+7.8
2020/212nd, Ligue 2€7.7m30th of 39+9.0
2019/205th, Ligue 2€6.3m31st of 39+6.2
2018/1910th, Ligue 2€5.3m36th of 39+5.1
2017/186th, Ligue 2€5.8m35th of 39+6.1
2016/1712th, Ligue 2€5.7m33rd of 38-0.1
2015/167th, Ligue 2€5.4m36th of 38+4.3
2014/1512th, Ligue 2€5.4m34th of 38-0.4
2011/125th, Ligue 2€6.2m37th of 39+6.8
2010/117th, Ligue 2€5.6m35th of 37+4.6
2009/106th, Ligue 2€5.7m34th of 38+6.5
2008/0912th, Ligue 2€5.4m35th of 38+0.7
How do we know?

For every season, we compare each club's wage bill with the average in the top two divisions, and work out the finish that wage bill usually brings, allowing for differences between seasons and assuming a bigger wage bill never lowers the expected finish. The gap between that and the actual finish, averaged over the seasons, is the figure above. An overall verdict needs at least eight seasons, and a signed number is given only when the gap is clearly larger than chance.

Wage bills are total payroll including social charges from the DNCG's published club accounts, checked against each report's own cost totals. Group (consolidated) accounts are left out.

On average, most of a big over-performance fades: clubs that finished at least four places above their money (on average 6.4 places) were +2.7 places the next season, so about 57% of it disappeared and the rest persisted. Some clubs beat their money season after season. It mixes good management, luck and resources the measure cannot see, so it is not a score for how well a club is run.

Clubs with a similar path

Clubs whose finishing positions over the last 15 seasons were closest to Clermont's, with recent seasons counting more.

In France

AuxerreFrance · 15th in Ligue 1, 2025/26TroyesFrance · 1st in Ligue 2, 2025/26Le HavreFrance · 14th in Ligue 1, 2025/26LorientFrance · 10th in Ligue 1, 2025/26

Elsewhere in Europe

VfL BochumGermany · 9th in 2. Bundesliga, 2025/26US Salernitana 1919Italy · not in the divisions covered nowCádizSpain · 18th in the Segunda División, 2025/26

Compare Clermont with another club

Sources