Competitive Mobility Project

France

Lille

2025/26: 3rd in Ligue 1 · 2026/27: Ligue 1

How high can Lille realistically go?

Based on finishing 3rd in Ligue 1 in 2025/26

About 4 in 10

Of the 36 times a club finished 2nd to 4th in Ligue 1 between 2004/05 and 2015/16, 15 won the league within ten seasons.

15 of 36 (42%); likely range 15%–67%, 13 different clubs.

Finished in the top four again the next seasonabout 4 in 10
28 of 63; range 26%–59%

Lille itself: 10 of the last 10 seasons in Ligue 1; 5 top-four finishes; 1 title.

How do we know?

We took every season since 2004/05 in which a club finished in the same part of the same league, and followed each club forward. The figure is the share that reached each goal. Ten-year goals use finishes from 2004/05 to 2015/16, five-year goals from 2004/05 to 2020/21, so every case has had the full time to play out; results run to the end of 2025/26.

It describes what happened to clubs in this position, not a forecast for one club. A club with much more money or history than is usual for its position has better chances than the figure suggests, which is why the club's own record is shown underneath.

The likely range is a 95% interval worked out by resampling clubs rather than seasons, because the same club often appears several times. It is wide where only a few clubs have been in a position, and two leagues whose ranges overlap may not really differ. Reserve teams such as Barcelona B or Real Madrid Castilla are left out of these counts, because they cannot be promoted into their first team's division.

Counts: won the league within ten seasons: 15 of 36; finished in the top four again the next season: 28 of 63.

The story so far

Lille has played 33 seasons in the divisions covered here since 1993/94: 30 in Ligue 1 and 3 in Ligue 2. It has been in Ligue 1 since 2000/01 (26 seasons), after 3 seasons in Ligue 2. It won Ligue 1 twice (2010/11 and 2020/21). Its biggest climb took five seasons: from 1st in Ligue 2 in 1999/00 to 2nd in Ligue 1 in 2004/05. It has been promoted once and relegated once.

Final position each seasonRinged dots are titles
2025/262021/222017/182013/142009/102005/062001/021997/981993/941stLigue 1Ligue 2
How to read this chart

Every club in the divisions covered is placed on one ladder each season: the champions are 1st, and the top club of the second division comes straight after the bottom club of the first. Shaded bands are the divisions. Hover over or tap a dot for the season.

33seasons since 1993/94
30seasons in Ligue 1
2league titles
12top-four finishes
1promotions
1relegations

Against the money

About where its money would put it

Over 13 seasons, the average gap was +1.0 places, which is within what chance alone would produce. It finished above its money in 8 of 13 seasons with published figures.

€73mwage bill, 2022/23
6thhighest of 39 clubs with published accounts
5thfinish in Ligue 1, 2022/23
Where Lille finishedWhere its wage bill normally finishes
1st2022/232020/212018/192016/172014/152012/132010/112008/09Ligue 1Ligue 2
Season by season
SeasonFinishWage billWage rankPlaces above its money
2022/235th, Ligue 1€73m6th of 39+1.6
2021/2210th, Ligue 1€84m4th of 39-4.6
2020/211st, Ligue 1€89m4th of 39+2.5
2019/204th, Ligue 1€90m4th of 39-0.6
2018/192nd, Ligue 1€72m4th of 39+5.5
2017/1817th, Ligue 1€68m4th of 39-9.4
2016/1711th, Ligue 1€59m4th of 38-2.9
2015/165th, Ligue 1€50m5th of 38+2.5
2014/158th, Ligue 1€48m5th of 38-0.2
2011/123rd, Ligue 1€88m3rd of 39+3.7
2010/111st, Ligue 1€56m3rd of 37+5.5
2009/104th, Ligue 1€49m4th of 38+3.4
2008/095th, Ligue 1€41m4th of 38+6.0
How do we know?

For every season, we compare each club's wage bill with the average in the top two divisions, and work out the finish that wage bill usually brings, allowing for differences between seasons and assuming a bigger wage bill never lowers the expected finish. The gap between that and the actual finish, averaged over the seasons, is the figure above. An overall verdict needs at least eight seasons, and a signed number is given only when the gap is clearly larger than chance.

Wage bills are total payroll including social charges from the DNCG's published club accounts, checked against each report's own cost totals. Group (consolidated) accounts are left out.

On average, most of a big over-performance fades: clubs that finished at least four places above their money (on average 6.4 places) were +2.7 places the next season, so about 57% of it disappeared and the rest persisted. Some clubs beat their money season after season. It mixes good management, luck and resources the measure cannot see, so it is not a score for how well a club is run.

Clubs with a similar path

Clubs whose finishing positions over the last 15 seasons were closest to Lille's, with recent seasons counting more.

In France

LyonFrance · 4th in Ligue 1, 2025/26MarseilleFrance · 5th in Ligue 1, 2025/26Paris Saint-GermainFrance · 1st in Ligue 1, 2025/26RennesFrance · 6th in Ligue 1, 2025/26

Elsewhere in Europe

Atlético MadridSpain · 4th in LaLiga, 2025/26Borussia DortmundGermany · 2nd in the Bundesliga, 2025/26Inter MilanItaly · 1st in Serie A, 2025/26

Compare Lille with another club

Sources