Guingamp has played 31 seasons in the divisions covered here since 1994/95: 13 in Ligue 1 and 18 in Ligue 2. It has been in Ligue 2 since 2019/20 (7 seasons), after 6 seasons in Ligue 1. Its best finish was 7th in Ligue 1, in 2002/03. Its biggest climb took five seasons: from 17th in Ligue 2 in 2009/10 to 10th in Ligue 1 in 2014/15. It has been promoted 5 times and relegated 4 times.
Guingamp
2025/26: 11th in Ligue 2
How high can Guingamp realistically go?
Based on finishing 11th in Ligue 2 in 2025/26
About 1 in 4
Of the 170 times a club finished in the bottom half of Ligue 2 between 2004/05 and 2020/21, 40 went up within five seasons.
40 of 170 (24%); likely range 14%–34%, 51 different clubs.
| Reached the top flight within ten seasons | about 4 in 10 51 of 120; range 28%–59% |
Guingamp itself: 3 of the last 10 seasons in Ligue 1.
Taking its wage bill into account
Of clubs in a similar position with a wage bill like Guingamp's — the 29th highest of 39 in the top two divisions in 2022/23, 0.2 times the average — this share went on to:
| Were in the top flight within five seasons | about 1 in 5 range 9%–32% |
How is this worked out?
A model fitted on every club-season with a published wage bill (England from 2011/12, France from 2008/09) relates each goal to two things: where the club finished and how its wage bill compared with the season's average. Five-year goals are used because the wage records are too recent for ten-year ones. We checked the model on clubs it had not seen: adding the wage bill makes the figures more accurate for most goals, and where it does not, the page says so. The range comes from refitting the model on clubs drawn at random with replacement. Like every figure here, it describes clubs like this one, not a forecast for this club; wage bills include all staff, not only players. This model was added after the registered tests and is descriptive, not one of them.
How do we know?
We took every season since 2004/05 in which a club finished in the same part of the same league, and followed each club forward. The figure is the share that reached each goal. Ten-year goals use finishes from 2004/05 to 2015/16, five-year goals from 2004/05 to 2020/21, so every case has had the full time to play out; results run to the end of 2025/26.
It describes what happened to clubs in this position, not a forecast for one club. A club with much more money or history than is usual for its position has better chances than the figure suggests, which is why the club's own record is shown underneath.
The likely range is a 95% interval worked out by resampling clubs rather than seasons, because the same club often appears several times. It is wide where only a few clubs have been in a position, and two leagues whose ranges overlap may not really differ. Reserve teams such as Barcelona B or Real Madrid Castilla are left out of these counts, because they cannot be promoted into their first team's division.
Counts: went up within five seasons: 40 of 170; reached the top flight within ten seasons: 51 of 120.
The story so far
Final position each seasonRinged dots are titles
How to read this chart
Every club in the divisions covered is placed on one ladder each season: the champions are 1st, and the top club of the second division comes straight after the bottom club of the first. Shaded bands are the divisions. Hover over or tap a dot for the season.
31seasons since 1993/94
13seasons in Ligue 1
0league titles
0top-four finishes
5promotions
4relegations
Against the money
About where its money would put it
Over 12 seasons, the average gap was +0.3 places, which is within what chance alone would produce. It finished above its money in 6 of 12 seasons with published figures.
€10mwage bill, 2022/23
29thhighest of 39 clubs with published accounts
6thfinish in Ligue 2, 2022/23
Where Guingamp finishedWhere its wage bill normally finishes
Season by season
| Season | Finish | Wage bill | Wage rank | Places above its money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | 6th, Ligue 2 | €10m | 29th of 39 | +4.4 |
| 2021/22 | 6th, Ligue 2 | €8.5m | 30th of 39 | +3.9 |
| 2020/21 | 9th, Ligue 2 | €14m | 23rd of 39 | -3.1 |
| 2019/20 | 8th, Ligue 2 | €11m | 25th of 39 | +0.0 |
| 2018/19 | 20th, Ligue 1 | €27m | 16th of 39 | -3.5 |
| 2017/18 | 12th, Ligue 1 | €25m | 13th of 39 | +3.1 |
| 2016/17 | 10th, Ligue 1 | €27m | 12th of 38 | +2.5 |
| 2015/16 | 16th, Ligue 1 | €22m | 13th of 38 | -0.9 |
| 2014/15 | 10th, Ligue 1 | €22m | 11th of 38 | +5.3 |
| 2011/12 | 7th, Ligue 2 | €7.6m | 32nd of 39 | +2.5 |
| 2009/10 | 17th, Ligue 2 | €9.4m | 24th of 38 | -6.8 |
| 2008/09 | 13th, Ligue 2 | €9.4m | 24th of 38 | -3.5 |
How do we know?
For every season, we compare each club's wage bill with the average in the top two divisions, and work out the finish that wage bill usually brings, allowing for differences between seasons and assuming a bigger wage bill never lowers the expected finish. The gap between that and the actual finish, averaged over the seasons, is the figure above. An overall verdict needs at least eight seasons, and a signed number is given only when the gap is clearly larger than chance.
Wage bills are total payroll including social charges from the DNCG's published club accounts, checked against each report's own cost totals. Group (consolidated) accounts are left out.
On average, most of a big over-performance fades: clubs that finished at least four places above their money (on average 6.4 places) were +2.7 places the next season, so about 57% of it disappeared and the rest persisted. Some clubs beat their money season after season. It mixes good management, luck and resources the measure cannot see, so it is not a score for how well a club is run.
Clubs with a similar path
Clubs whose finishing positions over the last 15 seasons were closest to Guingamp's, with recent seasons counting more.
In France
TroyesFrance · 1st in Ligue 2, 2025/26Le HavreFrance · 14th in Ligue 1, 2025/26NantesFrance · 17th in Ligue 1, 2025/26Saint-ÉtienneFrance · 3rd in Ligue 2, 2025/26
Elsewhere in Europe
West Bromwich AlbionEngland · 21st in the Championship, 2025/26Swansea CityEngland · 11th in the Championship, 2025/26Hannover 96Germany · 4th in 2. Bundesliga, 2025/26
Compare Guingamp with another club
Sources
- Final tables to 2025/26. Positions are worked out from match results.
- Relegations include dropping out of the divisions covered.
- All figures can be downloaded on the data page. Spotted a mistake? Report it with a source.