Toulouse has played 32 seasons in the divisions covered here since 1993/94: 25 in Ligue 1 and 7 in Ligue 2. It has been in Ligue 1 since 2022/23 (4 seasons), after 2 seasons in Ligue 2. Its best finish was 4th in Ligue 1, in 2008/09. It has been promoted 5 times and relegated 4 times.
Toulouse
2025/26: 9th in Ligue 1 · 2026/27: Ligue 1
How high can Toulouse realistically go?
Based on finishing 9th in Ligue 1 in 2025/26
About 4 in 10
Of the 60 times a club finished 8th to 12th in Ligue 1 between 2004/05 and 2015/16, 24 reached the top four within ten seasons.
24 of 60 (40%); likely range 18%–62%, 25 different clubs.
| Reached the top six within ten seasons | about 5 in 10 29 of 60; range 27%–71% |
| Stayed up for all of the next five seasons | about 6 in 10 48 of 85; range 41%–71% |
Toulouse itself: 8 of the last 10 seasons in Ligue 1.
Taking its wage bill into account
Of clubs in a similar position with a wage bill like Toulouse's — the 17th highest of 39 in the top two divisions in 2022/23, 0.7 times the average — this share went on to:
| Reached the top four within five seasons | about 1 in 15 range 0%–21% |
| Stayed in the top flight for all of the next five seasons | about 4 in 10 range 14%–59% |
How is this worked out?
A model fitted on every club-season with a published wage bill (England from 2011/12, France from 2008/09) relates each goal to two things: where the club finished and how its wage bill compared with the season's average. Five-year goals are used because the wage records are too recent for ten-year ones. We checked the model on clubs it had not seen: adding the wage bill makes the figures more accurate for most goals, and where it does not, the page says so. The range comes from refitting the model on clubs drawn at random with replacement. Like every figure here, it describes clubs like this one, not a forecast for this club; wage bills include all staff, not only players. This model was added after the registered tests and is descriptive, not one of them.
How do we know?
We took every season since 2004/05 in which a club finished in the same part of the same league, and followed each club forward. The figure is the share that reached each goal. Ten-year goals use finishes from 2004/05 to 2015/16, five-year goals from 2004/05 to 2020/21, so every case has had the full time to play out; results run to the end of 2025/26.
It describes what happened to clubs in this position, not a forecast for one club. A club with much more money or history than is usual for its position has better chances than the figure suggests, which is why the club's own record is shown underneath.
The likely range is a 95% interval worked out by resampling clubs rather than seasons, because the same club often appears several times. It is wide where only a few clubs have been in a position, and two leagues whose ranges overlap may not really differ. Reserve teams such as Barcelona B or Real Madrid Castilla are left out of these counts, because they cannot be promoted into their first team's division.
Counts: reached the top four within ten seasons: 24 of 60; reached the top six within ten seasons: 29 of 60; stayed up for all of the next five seasons: 48 of 85.
The story so far
Final position each seasonRinged dots are titles
How to read this chart
Every club in the divisions covered is placed on one ladder each season: the champions are 1st, and the top club of the second division comes straight after the bottom club of the first. Shaded bands are the divisions. Hover over or tap a dot for the season.
32seasons since 1993/94
25seasons in Ligue 1
0league titles
1top-four finishes
5promotions
4relegations
Against the money
About where its money would put it
Over 13 seasons, the average gap was -1.0 places, which is within what chance alone would produce. It finished above its money in 4 of 13 seasons with published figures.
€33mwage bill, 2022/23
17thhighest of 39 clubs with published accounts
13thfinish in Ligue 1, 2022/23
Where Toulouse finishedWhere its wage bill normally finishes
Season by season
| Season | Finish | Wage bill | Wage rank | Places above its money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | 13th, Ligue 1 | €33m | 17th of 39 | +2.6 |
| 2021/22 | 1st, Ligue 2 | €23m | 19th of 39 | -0.6 |
| 2020/21 | 3rd, Ligue 2 | €26m | 17th of 39 | -5.1 |
| 2019/20 | 20th, Ligue 1 | €31m | 11th of 39 | -5.7 |
| 2018/19 | 16th, Ligue 1 | €36m | 11th of 39 | -4.0 |
| 2017/18 | 18th, Ligue 1 | €30m | 11th of 39 | -2.9 |
| 2016/17 | 13th, Ligue 1 | €31m | 10th of 38 | -1.6 |
| 2015/16 | 17th, Ligue 1 | €25m | 11th of 38 | -1.9 |
| 2014/15 | 17th, Ligue 1 | €26m | 9th of 38 | -4.8 |
| 2011/12 | 8th, Ligue 1 | €29m | 10th of 39 | +4.5 |
| 2010/11 | 8th, Ligue 1 | €30m | 9th of 37 | +1.9 |
| 2009/10 | 14th, Ligue 1 | €28m | 10th of 38 | -2.5 |
| 2008/09 | 4th, Ligue 1 | €30m | 10th of 38 | +7.0 |
How do we know?
For every season, we compare each club's wage bill with the average in the top two divisions, and work out the finish that wage bill usually brings, allowing for differences between seasons and assuming a bigger wage bill never lowers the expected finish. The gap between that and the actual finish, averaged over the seasons, is the figure above. An overall verdict needs at least eight seasons, and a signed number is given only when the gap is clearly larger than chance.
Wage bills are total payroll including social charges from the DNCG's published club accounts, checked against each report's own cost totals. Group (consolidated) accounts are left out.
On average, most of a big over-performance fades: clubs that finished at least four places above their money (on average 6.4 places) were +2.7 places the next season, so about 57% of it disappeared and the rest persisted. Some clubs beat their money season after season. It mixes good management, luck and resources the measure cannot see, so it is not a score for how well a club is run.
Clubs with a similar path
Clubs whose finishing positions over the last 15 seasons were closest to Toulouse's, with recent seasons counting more.
In France
LorientFrance · 10th in Ligue 1, 2025/26NantesFrance · 17th in Ligue 1, 2025/26BrestFrance · 12th in Ligue 1, 2025/26ReimsFrance · 6th in Ligue 2, 2025/26
Elsewhere in Europe
UdineseItaly · 10th in Serie A, 2025/26FC AugsburgGermany · 9th in the Bundesliga, 2025/26Werder BremenGermany · 15th in the Bundesliga, 2025/26
Compare Toulouse with another club
Sources
- Final tables to 2025/26. Positions are worked out from match results.
- Relegations include dropping out of the divisions covered.
- All figures can be downloaded on the data page. Spotted a mistake? Report it with a source.