Competitive Mobility Project

Leagues

How open is the Bundesliga?

Germany · Bundesliga · 2. Bundesliga · 1992/93 to 2025/26

2.5×as long to reach the top four as in a league where the past did not matter (likely range 2.2–2.9)
7different champions since 1992/93
2different champions in the last ten seasons
11different clubs in the top four, 2016/17–2025/26
9different clubs in the top four, 2000/01–2009/10

Champions: Bayern Munich (23), Borussia Dortmund (5), Werder Bremen (2), Bayer Leverkusen (1), 1. FC Kaiserslautern (1), VfB Stuttgart (1), VfL Wolfsburg (1).

Can a bottom-half club reach the top four?

Of the 108 times a club finished in the bottom half of the Bundesliga between 2004/05 and 2015/16, 29 reached the top four within the next ten seasons: about 3 in 10 (likely range 11%–43%).

The same question in each league (finishes 2004/05–2015/16)

England8%Spain15%Italy16%Germany27%France24%

Over time: share reaching the top four within ten seasons, by when the bottom-half finish happened

0%10%20%30%40%1994–992000–052006–102011–15GermanyEnglandFranceItalySpain

Does the answer depend on the seasons chosen?

Share of bottom-half finishes followed by a top-four finish, with likely ranges. The main figure uses 2004/05–2015/16 because ten-year outcomes are complete only up to then. Later finishes can only be followed for five seasons.

WindowEnglandSpainItalyGermanyFrance
Finishes 2004/05–2015/16, top four within 10 seasons (the main figure)8%
2%–16%		15%
4%–29%		16%
6%–29%		27%
11%–43%		24%
11%–39%
Finishes 2004/05–2009/10, within 10 seasons5%
0%–15%		18%
4%–36%		23%
10%–41%		31%
10%–54%		32%
13%–50%
Finishes 2010/11–2015/16, within 10 seasons12%
0%–25%		12%
3%–25%		8%
0%–23%		22%
7%–40%		17%
4%–33%
Finishes 2011/12–2020/21, within 5 seasons6%
0%–13%		8%
2%–16%		5%
0%–15%		11%
3%–24%		9%
2%–18%
How do we know?

Every bottom-half finish in the top division was followed forward ten seasons. The periods are short, so single seasons move the lines; the project's registered tests, which use the whole ladder and every season, are on the How it works page.

Realistic ceilings in Germany

What happened next to clubs in each position (finishes from 2004/05; ten-year goals to 2015/16, five-year goals to 2020/21).

Clubs that……and then
Won the Bundesligawon the league within ten seasons: 9 of 12 (9 of 12; range 0%–96%)
finished in the top four again the next season: 19 of 21 (19 of 21; range 20%–100%)
Finished 2nd to 4th in the Bundesligawon the league within ten seasons: about 1 in 5 (7 of 36; range 0%–44%)
finished in the top four again the next season: about 5 in 10 (33 of 63; range 33%–65%)
Finished 5th to 7th in the Bundesligareached the top four within ten seasons: about 6 in 10 (20 of 36; range 30%–78%)
won the league within ten seasons: about 1 in 6 (6 of 36; range 0%–37%)
Finished 8th to 12th in the Bundesligareached the top four within ten seasons: about 4 in 10 (27 of 60; range 25%–62%)
reached the top six within ten seasons: about 7 in 10 (43 of 60; range 55%–85%)
stayed up for all of the next five seasons: about 6 in 10 (51 of 85; range 45%–73%)
Finished 13th or lower in the Bundesliga and stayed upstayed up for all of the next five seasons: about 6 in 10 (34 of 61; range 36%–72%)
reached the top six within ten seasons: about 7 in 10 (28 of 42; range 45%–88%)
reached the top four within ten seasons: about 3 in 10 (14 of 42; range 14%–56%)
Was relegated from the Bundesligawere back in the top flight within five seasons: about 5 in 10 (22 of 41; range 38%–68%)
reached the top four within ten seasons: about 1 in 15 (2 of 30; range 0%–18%)
Was promoted from 2. Bundesligastayed up for all of the next five seasons: about 3 in 10 (14 of 41; range 19%–50%)
reached the top six within ten seasons: about 5 in 10 (14 of 30; range 27%–66%)
Finished in the top half of 2. Bundesliga without going upwent up within five seasons: about 4 in 10 (44 of 112; range 28%–50%)
reached the top flight within ten seasons: about 5 in 10 (40 of 78; range 32%–71%)
Finished in the bottom half of 2. Bundesligawent up within five seasons: about 1 in 6 (27 of 153; range 9%–27%)
reached the top flight within ten seasons: about 3 in 10 (33 of 108; range 16%–47%)

All clubs

Bundesliga in 2025/26

2. Bundesliga in 2025/26

Formerly in the divisions covered