Competitive Mobility Project

Germany

Hamburger SV

2025/26: 13th in the Bundesliga · 2026/27: Bundesliga

How high can Hamburger SV realistically go?

Based on finishing 13th in the Bundesliga in 2025/26

About 6 in 10

Of the 61 times a club finished 13th or lower in the Bundesliga and stayed up between 2004/05 and 2020/21, 34 stayed up for all of the next five seasons.

34 of 61 (56%); likely range 36%–72%, 20 different clubs.

Reached the top six within ten seasonsabout 7 in 10
28 of 42; range 45%–88%
Reached the top four within ten seasonsabout 3 in 10
14 of 42; range 14%–56%

Hamburger SV itself: 3 of the last 10 seasons in the Bundesliga.

How do we know?

We took every season since 2004/05 in which a club finished in the same part of the same league, and followed each club forward. The figure is the share that reached each goal. Ten-year goals use finishes from 2004/05 to 2015/16, five-year goals from 2004/05 to 2020/21, so every case has had the full time to play out; results run to the end of 2025/26.

It describes what happened to clubs in this position, not a forecast for one club. A club with much more money or history than is usual for its position has better chances than the figure suggests, which is why the club's own record is shown underneath.

The likely range is a 95% interval worked out by resampling clubs rather than seasons, because the same club often appears several times. It is wide where only a few clubs have been in a position, and two leagues whose ranges overlap may not really differ. Reserve teams such as Barcelona B or Real Madrid Castilla are left out of these counts, because they cannot be promoted into their first team's division.

Counts: stayed up for all of the next five seasons: 34 of 61; reached the top six within ten seasons: 28 of 42; reached the top four within ten seasons: 14 of 42.

The story so far

Hamburger SV has played 34 seasons in the divisions covered here since 1992/93: 27 in the Bundesliga and 7 in 2. Bundesliga. It has been in the Bundesliga since 2025/26 (1 season), after 7 seasons in 2. Bundesliga. Its best finish was 3rd in the Bundesliga, in 1999/00. It has been promoted once and relegated once.

Final position each seasonRinged dots are titles
2025/262021/222017/182013/142009/102005/062001/021997/981993/941stBundesliga2. Bundesliga
How to read this chart

Every club in the divisions covered is placed on one ladder each season: the champions are 1st, and the top club of the second division comes straight after the bottom club of the first. Shaded bands are the divisions. Hover over or tap a dot for the season.

34seasons since 1992/93
27seasons in the Bundesliga
0league titles
4top-four finishes
1promotions
1relegations

Against the money

Not available for Germany: wage bills are not published club by club in one place there, so this is shown for England and France only.

Clubs with a similar path

Clubs whose finishing positions over the last 15 seasons were closest to Hamburger SV's, with recent seasons counting more.

In Germany

1. FC KölnGermany · 14th in the Bundesliga, 2025/26Hannover 96Germany · 4th in 2. Bundesliga, 2025/26FC AugsburgGermany · 9th in the Bundesliga, 2025/26Werder BremenGermany · 15th in the Bundesliga, 2025/26

Elsewhere in Europe

Las PalmasSpain · 5th in the Segunda División, 2025/26LorientFrance · 10th in Ligue 1, 2025/26CagliariItaly · 14th in Serie A, 2025/26

Compare Hamburger SV with another club

Sources