Competitive Mobility Project

Germany

VfL Wolfsburg

2025/26: 16th in the Bundesliga, relegated · 2026/27: 2. Bundesliga

How high can VfL Wolfsburg realistically go?

Based on finishing 16th in the Bundesliga in 2025/26 and going down

About 5 in 10

Of the 41 times a club was relegated from the Bundesliga between 2004/05 and 2020/21, 22 were back in the top flight within five seasons.

22 of 41 (54%); likely range 38%–68%, 27 different clubs.

Reached the top four within ten seasonsabout 1 in 15
2 of 30; range 0%–18%

VfL Wolfsburg itself: 10 of the last 10 seasons in the Bundesliga; 1 top-four finish.

How do we know?

We took every season since 2004/05 in which a club finished in the same part of the same league, and followed each club forward. The figure is the share that reached each goal. Ten-year goals use finishes from 2004/05 to 2015/16, five-year goals from 2004/05 to 2020/21, so every case has had the full time to play out; results run to the end of 2025/26.

It describes what happened to clubs in this position, not a forecast for one club. A club with much more money or history than is usual for its position has better chances than the figure suggests, which is why the club's own record is shown underneath.

The likely range is a 95% interval worked out by resampling clubs rather than seasons, because the same club often appears several times. It is wide where only a few clubs have been in a position, and two leagues whose ranges overlap may not really differ. Reserve teams such as Barcelona B or Real Madrid Castilla are left out of these counts, because they cannot be promoted into their first team's division.

Counts: were back in the top flight within five seasons: 22 of 41; reached the top four within ten seasons: 2 of 30.

The story so far

VfL Wolfsburg has played 34 seasons in the divisions covered here since 1992/93: 29 in the Bundesliga and 5 in 2. Bundesliga. It has been in the Bundesliga since 1997/98 (29 seasons), after 5 seasons in 2. Bundesliga. It drops to 2. Bundesliga for 2026/27. It won the Bundesliga once (2008/09). Its biggest climb took five seasons: from 12th in 2. Bundesliga in 1995/96 to 9th in the Bundesliga in 2000/01. It has been promoted once and relegated once.

Final position each seasonRinged dots are titles
2025/262021/222017/182013/142009/102005/062001/021997/981993/941stBundesliga2. Bundesliga
How to read this chart

Every club in the divisions covered is placed on one ladder each season: the champions are 1st, and the top club of the second division comes straight after the bottom club of the first. Shaded bands are the divisions. Hover over or tap a dot for the season.

34seasons since 1992/93
29seasons in the Bundesliga
1league titles
3top-four finishes
1promotions
1relegations

Against the money

Not available for Germany: wage bills are not published club by club in one place there, so this is shown for England and France only.

Clubs with a similar path

Clubs whose finishing positions over the last 15 seasons were closest to VfL Wolfsburg's, with recent seasons counting more.

In Germany

Borussia MönchengladbachGermany · 12th in the Bundesliga, 2025/26Mainz 05Germany · 10th in the Bundesliga, 2025/26FC AugsburgGermany · 9th in the Bundesliga, 2025/26Eintracht FrankfurtGermany · 8th in the Bundesliga, 2025/26

Elsewhere in Europe

SevillaSpain · 13th in LaLiga, 2025/26MontpellierFrance · 8th in Ligue 2, 2025/26EvertonEngland · 13th in the Premier League, 2025/26

Compare VfL Wolfsburg with another club

Sources