Competitive Mobility Project

Germany

Bayern Munich

2025/26: 1st in the Bundesliga, champions · 2026/27: Bundesliga

How high can Bayern Munich realistically go?

Based on finishing 1st in the Bundesliga in 2025/26

9 of 12

Of the 12 times a club won the Bundesliga between 2004/05 and 2015/16, 9 won the league within ten seasons.

9 of 12 (75%); likely range 0%–96%, 4 different clubs.

Finished in the top four again the next season19 of 21
19 of 21; range 20%–100%

Bayern Munich itself: 10 of the last 10 seasons in the Bundesliga; 10 top-four finishes; 9 titles.

How do we know?

We took every season since 2004/05 in which a club finished in the same part of the same league, and followed each club forward. The figure is the share that reached each goal. Ten-year goals use finishes from 2004/05 to 2015/16, five-year goals from 2004/05 to 2020/21, so every case has had the full time to play out; results run to the end of 2025/26.

It describes what happened to clubs in this position, not a forecast for one club. A club with much more money or history than is usual for its position has better chances than the figure suggests, which is why the club's own record is shown underneath.

The likely range is a 95% interval worked out by resampling clubs rather than seasons, because the same club often appears several times. It is wide where only a few clubs have been in a position, and two leagues whose ranges overlap may not really differ. Reserve teams such as Barcelona B or Real Madrid Castilla are left out of these counts, because they cannot be promoted into their first team's division.

Counts: won the league within ten seasons: 9 of 12; finished in the top four again the next season: 19 of 21.

The story so far

Bayern Munich has played 34 seasons in the divisions covered here since 1992/93: 34 in the Bundesliga. It has been in the Bundesliga since 1992/93 (34 seasons). It won the Bundesliga 23 times, most recently in 2025/26.

Final position each seasonRinged dots are titles
2025/262021/222017/182013/142009/102005/062001/021997/981993/941stBundesliga2. Bundesliga
How to read this chart

Every club in the divisions covered is placed on one ladder each season: the champions are 1st, and the top club of the second division comes straight after the bottom club of the first. Shaded bands are the divisions. Hover over or tap a dot for the season.

34seasons since 1992/93
34seasons in the Bundesliga
23league titles
33top-four finishes
0promotions
0relegations

Against the money

Not available for Germany: wage bills are not published club by club in one place there, so this is shown for England and France only.

Clubs with a similar path

Clubs whose finishing positions over the last 15 seasons were closest to Bayern Munich's, with recent seasons counting more.

In Germany

Borussia DortmundGermany · 2nd in the Bundesliga, 2025/26Bayer LeverkusenGermany · 6th in the Bundesliga, 2025/26Eintracht FrankfurtGermany · 8th in the Bundesliga, 2025/26Borussia MönchengladbachGermany · 12th in the Bundesliga, 2025/26

Elsewhere in Europe

Paris Saint-GermainFrance · 1st in Ligue 1, 2025/26BarcelonaSpain · 1st in LaLiga, 2025/26Manchester CityEngland · 2nd in the Premier League, 2025/26

Compare Bayern Munich with another club

Sources