Competitive Mobility Project

Germany

Arminia Bielefeld

2025/26: 13th in 2. Bundesliga

How high can Arminia Bielefeld realistically go?

Based on finishing 13th in 2. Bundesliga in 2025/26

About 1 in 6

Of the 153 times a club finished in the bottom half of 2. Bundesliga between 2004/05 and 2020/21, 27 went up within five seasons.

27 of 153 (18%); likely range 9%–27%, 44 different clubs.

Reached the top flight within ten seasonsabout 3 in 10
33 of 108; range 16%–47%

Arminia Bielefeld itself: 2 of the last 10 seasons in the Bundesliga.

How do we know?

We took every season since 2004/05 in which a club finished in the same part of the same league, and followed each club forward. The figure is the share that reached each goal. Ten-year goals use finishes from 2004/05 to 2015/16, five-year goals from 2004/05 to 2020/21, so every case has had the full time to play out; results run to the end of 2025/26.

It describes what happened to clubs in this position, not a forecast for one club. A club with much more money or history than is usual for its position has better chances than the figure suggests, which is why the club's own record is shown underneath.

The likely range is a 95% interval worked out by resampling clubs rather than seasons, because the same club often appears several times. It is wide where only a few clubs have been in a position, and two leagues whose ranges overlap may not really differ. Reserve teams such as Barcelona B or Real Madrid Castilla are left out of these counts, because they cannot be promoted into their first team's division.

Counts: went up within five seasons: 27 of 153; reached the top flight within ten seasons: 33 of 108.

The story so far

Arminia Bielefeld has played 26 seasons in the divisions covered here since 1995/96: 11 in the Bundesliga and 15 in 2. Bundesliga. It returned to 2. Bundesliga in 2025/26 after 2 seasons outside the divisions covered. Its best finish was 12th in the Bundesliga, in 2006/07. Its biggest climb took five seasons: from 13th in 2. Bundesliga in 2000/01 to 13th in the Bundesliga in 2005/06. It has been promoted 8 times and relegated 8 times.

Final position each seasonRinged dots are titles
2025/262021/222017/182013/142009/102005/062001/021997/981993/941stBundesliga2. Bundesliga
How to read this chart

Every club in the divisions covered is placed on one ladder each season: the champions are 1st, and the top club of the second division comes straight after the bottom club of the first. Shaded bands are the divisions. Hover over or tap a dot for the season.

26seasons since 1992/93
11seasons in the Bundesliga
0league titles
0top-four finishes
8promotions
8relegations

Against the money

Not available for Germany: wage bills are not published club by club in one place there, so this is shown for England and France only.

Clubs with a similar path

Clubs whose finishing positions over the last 15 seasons were closest to Arminia Bielefeld's, with recent seasons counting more.

In Germany

SV SandhausenGermany · not in the divisions covered nowDynamo DresdenGermany · 11th in 2. Bundesliga, 2025/26Greuther FürthGermany · 16th in 2. Bundesliga, 2025/26Erzgebirge AueGermany · not in the divisions covered now

Elsewhere in Europe

Benevento CalcioItaly · not in the divisions covered nowNîmes OlympiqueFrance · not in the divisions covered nowSPAL 2013 FerraraItaly · not in the divisions covered now

Compare Arminia Bielefeld with another club

Sources