How far can your club climb?
Every club in the top divisions of England, Spain, Italy, Germany and France since the early 1990s: how high clubs like yours have realistically gone, the story of each club, and — in England and France — whether it beats its money.
What "mobility" means here
Mobility is how easily a club can move up over the years — above all, into the top four. We compare each league with an imaginary one in which last season's position told you nothing about the next and every club had the same chance. In England, reaching the top four takes about 4.3 times longer than in that imaginary league (likely range 3.7–5.4); in France about 2.4 times (2.1–2.6). England is the least mobile of the five: its figure was higher than Spain's and Italy's in 97% or more of resampled comparisons, however the seasons are resampled.
1992/93 (or the first season covered) to 2025/26. Likely ranges come from resampling whole seasons.
How is this worked out?
Every club is placed on one ladder each season, covering England's four divisions and the top two elsewhere. We measure how long, on average, it takes clubs to reach the top four, and compare that with the same calculation for a league in which positions are reshuffled at random every season. The ratio is 1 when a league is as open as pure chance. The test and its rejection rule were written down before the result was computed; see How it works.
Three things the numbers show
From the bottom half to the top four is a long shot everywhere
Of clubs finishing in the bottom half of the Premier League (2004/05–2015/16), about 1 in 12 reached the top four within ten years (10 of 120); in the Bundesliga, about 3 in 10 (29 of 108). The same clubs recur, so the ranges are wide (England 2%–16%, Germany 11%–43%), and the gap depends on the seasons chosen: for finishes from 2011/12 to 2020/21, followed for five seasons, England (6%), Italy (5%) and Spain (8%) are about level. The firmer evidence that England is the least mobile is the measure above, which uses every club and every season.
Going up is easier than staying up
Only about 1 in 3 promoted clubs stayed in the top flight for the next five seasons. About half of relegated clubs were back within five.
Share of promoted clubs that stayed up for five seasons (promoted 2004/05–2020/21).
Beating your money: most of it fades, some of it sticks
Clubs that finished well above what their wage bill usually buys (on average 6 places in England) were still about 2 places above it the next season: roughly two-thirds faded, a third stayed. A few clubs, Brentford among them, beat their money almost every season. France is similar.
Average places above what the wage bill usually buys.
How do we know?
Positions come from every league table since the early 1990s; outcomes are followed forward for ten or five seasons, so recent finishes are not counted until their time has passed. Wage bills come from clubs' published accounts (England: Companies House; France: the DNCG). Over-performance here means finishing at least four places above what the wage bill usually buys. If it were pure luck, the next season would be back to zero on average; it is not, so part of it reflects something lasting about the club. More on the How it works page.