Competitive Mobility Project

Leagues

How open is Serie A?

Italy · Serie A · Serie B · 1994/95 to 2025/26

3.2×as long to reach the top four as in a league where the past did not matter (likely range 2.7–3.7)
6different champions since 1994/95
4different champions in the last ten seasons
8different clubs in the top four, 2016/17–2025/26
10different clubs in the top four, 2000/01–2009/10

Champions: Juventus (14), Inter Milan (8), AC Milan (5), Napoli (2), Lazio (1), Roma (1).

Can a bottom-half club reach the top four?

Of the 120 times a club finished in the bottom half of Serie A between 2004/05 and 2015/16, 19 reached the top four within the next ten seasons: about 1 in 6 (likely range 6%–29%).

The same question in each league (finishes 2004/05–2015/16)

England8%Spain15%Italy16%Germany27%France24%

Over time: share reaching the top four within ten seasons, by when the bottom-half finish happened

0%10%20%30%40%1994–992000–052006–102011–15GermanyEnglandFranceItalySpain

Does the answer depend on the seasons chosen?

Share of bottom-half finishes followed by a top-four finish, with likely ranges. The main figure uses 2004/05–2015/16 because ten-year outcomes are complete only up to then. Later finishes can only be followed for five seasons.

WindowEnglandSpainItalyGermanyFrance
Finishes 2004/05–2015/16, top four within 10 seasons (the main figure)8%
2%–16%		15%
4%–29%		16%
6%–29%		27%
11%–43%		24%
11%–39%
Finishes 2004/05–2009/10, within 10 seasons5%
0%–15%		18%
4%–36%		23%
10%–41%		31%
10%–54%		32%
13%–50%
Finishes 2010/11–2015/16, within 10 seasons12%
0%–25%		12%
3%–25%		8%
0%–23%		22%
7%–40%		17%
4%–33%
Finishes 2011/12–2020/21, within 5 seasons6%
0%–13%		8%
2%–16%		5%
0%–15%		11%
3%–24%		9%
2%–18%
How do we know?

Every bottom-half finish in the top division was followed forward ten seasons. The periods are short, so single seasons move the lines; the project's registered tests, which use the whole ladder and every season, are on the How it works page.

Realistic ceilings in Italy

What happened next to clubs in each position (finishes from 2004/05; ten-year goals to 2015/16, five-year goals to 2020/21).

Clubs that……and then
Won Serie Awon the league within ten seasons: 10 of 12 (10 of 12; range 0%–100%)
finished in the top four again the next season: 19 of 21 (19 of 21; range 75%–100%)
Finished 2nd to 4th in Serie Awon the league within ten seasons: about 4 in 10 (15 of 36; range 10%–74%)
finished in the top four again the next season: about 6 in 10 (35 of 63; range 40%–65%)
Finished 5th to 7th in Serie Areached the top four within ten seasons: about 6 in 10 (20 of 36; range 31%–77%)
won the league within ten seasons: about 1 in 5 (7 of 36; range 3%–39%)
Finished 8th to 12th in Serie Areached the top four within ten seasons: about 4 in 10 (25 of 60; range 19%–66%)
reached the top six within ten seasons: about 6 in 10 (37 of 60; range 41%–79%)
stayed up for all of the next five seasons: about 6 in 10 (54 of 85; range 49%–78%)
Finished 13th or lower in Serie A and stayed upstayed up for all of the next five seasons: about 5 in 10 (41 of 85; range 33%–63%)
reached the top six within ten seasons: about 2 in 10 (15 of 60; range 11%–43%)
reached the top four within ten seasons: about 1 in 7 (9 of 60; range 4%–30%)
Was relegated from Serie Awere back in the top flight within five seasons: about 6 in 10 (29 of 51; range 43%–69%)
reached the top four within ten seasons: about 1 in 18 (2 of 36; range 0%–14%)
Was promoted from Serie Bstayed up for all of the next five seasons: about 3 in 10 (14 of 51; range 16%–42%)
reached the top six within ten seasons: about 1 in 5 (7 of 36; range 8%–33%)
Finished in the top half of Serie B without going upwent up within five seasons: about 3 in 10 (42 of 132; range 20%–44%)
reached the top flight within ten seasons: about 4 in 10 (37 of 96; range 22%–54%)
Finished in the bottom half of Serie Bwent up within five seasons: about 1 in 7 (26 of 184; range 8%–21%)
reached the top flight within ten seasons: about 1 in 5 (29 of 132; range 11%–35%)

All clubs

Serie A in 2025/26

Serie B in 2025/26

Formerly in the divisions covered