Competitive Mobility Project

Leagues

How open is LaLiga?

Spain · LaLiga · Segunda División · 1993/94 to 2025/26

3.2×as long to reach the top four as in a league where the past did not matter (likely range 2.8–3.8)
5different champions since 1993/94
3different champions in the last ten seasons
9different clubs in the top four, 2016/17–2025/26
12different clubs in the top four, 2000/01–2009/10

Champions: Barcelona (16), Real Madrid (11), Atlético Madrid (3), Valencia (2), Deportivo La Coruña (1).

Reserve teams such as Barcelona B and Real Madrid Castilla played 39 seasons in the Segunda División in this period (8 different teams). They cannot be promoted into their first team's division, so they are left out of every "realistic ceiling" figure. They stay in the league tables, because the other clubs' positions depend on them. Taking them out of the mobility measure leaves it unchanged: 3.2× (likely range 2.8–3.8).

Can a bottom-half club reach the top four?

Of the 120 times a club finished in the bottom half of LaLiga between 2004/05 and 2015/16, 18 reached the top four within the next ten seasons: about 1 in 7 (likely range 4%–29%).

The same question in each league (finishes 2004/05–2015/16)

England8%Spain15%Italy16%Germany27%France24%

Over time: share reaching the top four within ten seasons, by when the bottom-half finish happened

0%10%20%30%40%1994–992000–052006–102011–15GermanyEnglandFranceItalySpain

Does the answer depend on the seasons chosen?

Share of bottom-half finishes followed by a top-four finish, with likely ranges. The main figure uses 2004/05–2015/16 because ten-year outcomes are complete only up to then. Later finishes can only be followed for five seasons.

WindowEnglandSpainItalyGermanyFrance
Finishes 2004/05–2015/16, top four within 10 seasons (the main figure)8%
2%–16%		15%
4%–29%		16%
6%–29%		27%
11%–43%		24%
11%–39%
Finishes 2004/05–2009/10, within 10 seasons5%
0%–15%		18%
4%–36%		23%
10%–41%		31%
10%–54%		32%
13%–50%
Finishes 2010/11–2015/16, within 10 seasons12%
0%–25%		12%
3%–25%		8%
0%–23%		22%
7%–40%		17%
4%–33%
Finishes 2011/12–2020/21, within 5 seasons6%
0%–13%		8%
2%–16%		5%
0%–15%		11%
3%–24%		9%
2%–18%
How do we know?

Every bottom-half finish in the top division was followed forward ten seasons. The periods are short, so single seasons move the lines; the project's registered tests, which use the whole ladder and every season, are on the How it works page.

Realistic ceilings in Spain

What happened next to clubs in each position (finishes from 2004/05; ten-year goals to 2015/16, five-year goals to 2020/21).

Clubs that……and then
Won LaLigawon the league within ten seasons: 12 of 12 (12 of 12; range 100%–100%)
finished in the top four again the next season: 21 of 21 (21 of 21; range 100%–100%)
Finished 2nd to 4th in LaLigawon the league within ten seasons: about 5 in 10 (18 of 36; range 0%–80%)
finished in the top four again the next season: about 7 in 10 (42 of 63; range 33%–84%)
Finished 5th to 7th in LaLigareached the top four within ten seasons: about 6 in 10 (23 of 36; range 29%–83%)
won the league within ten seasons: about 1 in 12 (3 of 36; range 0%–27%)
Finished 8th to 12th in LaLigareached the top four within ten seasons: about 3 in 10 (20 of 60; range 12%–55%)
reached the top six within ten seasons: about 5 in 10 (32 of 60; range 33%–75%)
stayed up for all of the next five seasons: about 6 in 10 (48 of 85; range 39%–72%)
Finished 13th or lower in LaLiga and stayed upstayed up for all of the next five seasons: about 4 in 10 (35 of 85; range 26%–57%)
reached the top six within ten seasons: about 4 in 10 (22 of 60; range 18%–56%)
reached the top four within ten seasons: about 1 in 9 (7 of 60; range 2%–26%)
Was relegated from LaLigawere back in the top flight within five seasons: about 5 in 10 (28 of 51; range 41%–67%)
reached the top four within ten seasons: about 1 in 12 (3 of 36; range 0%–19%)
Was promoted from the Segunda Divisiónstayed up for all of the next five seasons: about 3 in 10 (15 of 51; range 17%–41%)
reached the top six within ten seasons: about 2 in 10 (9 of 36; range 9%–44%)
Finished in the top half of the Segunda División without going upwent up within five seasons: about 5 in 10 (60 of 128; range 34%–59%)
reached the top flight within ten seasons: about 6 in 10 (50 of 88; range 41%–72%)
Finished in the bottom half of the Segunda Divisiónwent up within five seasons: about 1 in 6 (29 of 177; range 10%–23%)
reached the top flight within ten seasons: about 4 in 10 (46 of 125; range 22%–52%)

All clubs

LaLiga in 2025/26

Segunda División in 2025/26

Formerly in the divisions covered