Competitive Mobility Project

Leagues

How open is the Premier League?

England · Premier League · Championship · League One · League Two · 1992/93 to 2025/26

4.3×as long to reach the top four as in a league where the past did not matter (likely range 3.7–5.4)
7different champions since 1992/93
4different champions in the last ten seasons
8different clubs in the top four, 2016/17–2025/26
8different clubs in the top four, 2000/01–2009/10

Champions: Manchester United (13), Manchester City (8), Chelsea (5), Arsenal (4), Liverpool (2), Blackburn Rovers (1), Leicester City (1).

Can a bottom-half club reach the top four?

Of the 120 times a club finished in the bottom half of the Premier League between 2004/05 and 2015/16, 10 reached the top four within the next ten seasons: about 1 in 12 (likely range 2%–16%).

The same question in each league (finishes 2004/05–2015/16)

England8%Spain15%Italy16%Germany27%France24%

Over time: share reaching the top four within ten seasons, by when the bottom-half finish happened

0%10%20%30%40%1994–992000–052006–102011–15GermanyEnglandFranceItalySpain

Does the answer depend on the seasons chosen?

Share of bottom-half finishes followed by a top-four finish, with likely ranges. The main figure uses 2004/05–2015/16 because ten-year outcomes are complete only up to then. Later finishes can only be followed for five seasons.

WindowEnglandSpainItalyGermanyFrance
Finishes 2004/05–2015/16, top four within 10 seasons (the main figure)8%
2%–16%		15%
4%–29%		16%
6%–29%		27%
11%–43%		24%
11%–39%
Finishes 2004/05–2009/10, within 10 seasons5%
0%–15%		18%
4%–36%		23%
10%–41%		31%
10%–54%		32%
13%–50%
Finishes 2010/11–2015/16, within 10 seasons12%
0%–25%		12%
3%–25%		8%
0%–23%		22%
7%–40%		17%
4%–33%
Finishes 2011/12–2020/21, within 5 seasons6%
0%–13%		8%
2%–16%		5%
0%–15%		11%
3%–24%		9%
2%–18%
How do we know?

Every bottom-half finish in the top division was followed forward ten seasons. The periods are short, so single seasons move the lines; the project's registered tests, which use the whole ladder and every season, are on the How it works page.

Realistic ceilings in England

What happened next to clubs in each position (finishes from 2004/05; ten-year goals to 2015/16, five-year goals to 2020/21).

Clubs that……and then
Won the Premier Leaguewon the league within ten seasons: 10 of 12 (10 of 12; range 50%–100%)
finished in the top four again the next season: 16 of 21 (16 of 21; range 45%–93%)
Finished 2nd to 4th in the Premier Leaguewon the league within ten seasons: about 4 in 10 (16 of 36; range 16%–83%)
finished in the top four again the next season: about 7 in 10 (45 of 63; range 51%–84%)
Finished 5th to 7th in the Premier Leaguereached the top four within ten seasons: about 4 in 10 (15 of 36; range 8%–71%)
won the league within ten seasons: about 1 in 6 (6 of 36; range 0%–41%)
Finished 8th to 12th in the Premier Leaguereached the top four within ten seasons: about 1 in 6 (10 of 60; range 3%–33%)
reached the top six within ten seasons: about 3 in 10 (19 of 60; range 14%–49%)
stayed up for all of the next five seasons: about 6 in 10 (51 of 85; range 45%–73%)
Finished 13th or lower in the Premier League and stayed upstayed up for all of the next five seasons: about 4 in 10 (36 of 85; range 29%–55%)
reached the top six within ten seasons: about 1 in 4 (14 of 60; range 8%–42%)
reached the top four within ten seasons: about 1 in 9 (7 of 60; range 2%–23%)
Was relegated from the Premier Leaguewere back in the top flight within five seasons: about 5 in 10 (26 of 51; range 36%–63%)
reached the top four within ten seasons: about 1 in 18 (2 of 36; range 0%–14%)
Was relegated from the Championshipwere back up within five seasons: about 6 in 10 (30 of 51; range 45%–71%)
reached the top flight within ten seasons: about 1 in 7 (5 of 36; range 3%–27%)
Was promoted from the Championshipstayed up for all of the next five seasons: about 4 in 10 (19 of 51; range 24%–54%)
reached the top six within ten seasons: about 1 in 9 (4 of 36; range 3%–23%)
Finished in the top half of the Championship without going upwent up within five seasons: about 4 in 10 (56 of 153; range 25%–48%)
reached the top flight within ten seasons: about 6 in 10 (61 of 108; range 40%–71%)
Finished in the bottom half of the Championshipwent up within five seasons: about 3 in 10 (41 of 153; range 16%–38%)
reached the top flight within ten seasons: about 4 in 10 (48 of 108; range 28%–61%)
Was relegated from League Onewere back up within five seasons: about 5 in 10 (31 of 67; range 35%–57%)
reached the top flight within ten seasons: 1 of 48 (1 of 48; range 0%–7%)
Was promoted from League Onestayed up for all of the next five seasons: about 5 in 10 (26 of 51; range 35%–67%)
Finished in the top half of League One without going upwent up within five seasons: about 4 in 10 (58 of 152; range 26%–50%)
reached the top flight within ten seasons: about 1 in 6 (17 of 108; range 5%–28%)
Finished in the bottom half of League Onewent up within five seasons: about 1 in 7 (21 of 137; range 7%–26%)
reached the top flight within ten seasons: about 1 in 16 (6 of 96; range 0%–14%)
Was promoted from League Twostayed up for all of the next five seasons: about 5 in 10 (36 of 67; range 42%–66%)
Finished in the top half of League Two without going upwent up within five seasons: about 6 in 10 (76 of 137; range 44%–67%)
reached the top flight within ten seasons: 2 of 96 (2 of 96; range 0%–7%)
Finished in the bottom half of League Twowent up within five seasons: about 3 in 10 (68 of 204; range 24%–43%)
reached the top flight within ten seasons: 1 of 144 (1 of 144; range 0%–2%)

Who beat their money?

Of 39 clubs with at least eight seasons of published wage figures in the top two divisions, these finished clearly above or below what their wage bill usually buys. Every other club finished about where its money would put it.

ClubPlaces above or below, on averageSeasons
Sheffield United+5.48
Brentford+5.110
Manchester City+2.414
Middlesbrough+1.914
Queens Park Rangers-2.911
Fulham-3.114
Aston Villa-3.513
Reading-5.910
How do we know?

See any club page under "Against the money" for the method. A club is listed only when its average gap is clearly larger than chance would produce.

All clubs

Premier League in 2025/26

Championship in 2025/26

League One in 2025/26

League Two in 2025/26

Formerly in the divisions covered