Competitive Mobility Project

Italy

Carrarese

2025/26: 12th in Serie B

How high can Carrarese realistically go?

Based on finishing 12th in Serie B in 2025/26

About 1 in 7

Of the 184 times a club finished in the bottom half of Serie B between 2004/05 and 2020/21, 26 went up within five seasons.

26 of 184 (14%); likely range 8%–21%, 56 different clubs.

Reached the top flight within ten seasonsabout 1 in 5
29 of 132; range 11%–35%

Carrarese itself: none of the last 10 seasons in Serie A.

How do we know?

We took every season since 2004/05 in which a club finished in the same part of the same league, and followed each club forward. The figure is the share that reached each goal. Ten-year goals use finishes from 2004/05 to 2015/16, five-year goals from 2004/05 to 2020/21, so every case has had the full time to play out; results run to the end of 2025/26.

It describes what happened to clubs in this position, not a forecast for one club. A club with much more money or history than is usual for its position has better chances than the figure suggests, which is why the club's own record is shown underneath.

The likely range is a 95% interval worked out by resampling clubs rather than seasons, because the same club often appears several times. It is wide where only a few clubs have been in a position, and two leagues whose ranges overlap may not really differ. Reserve teams such as Barcelona B or Real Madrid Castilla are left out of these counts, because they cannot be promoted into their first team's division.

Counts: went up within five seasons: 26 of 184; reached the top flight within ten seasons: 29 of 132.

The story so far

Carrarese has played 2 seasons in the divisions covered here since 2024/25: 2 in Serie B. It has been in Serie B since 2024/25 (2 seasons). Its best finish was 12th in Serie B, in 2024/25. It has been promoted once and never relegated.

Final position each seasonRinged dots are titles
2025/262021/222017/182013/142009/102005/062001/021997/981stSerie ASerie B
How to read this chart

Every club in the divisions covered is placed on one ladder each season: the champions are 1st, and the top club of the second division comes straight after the bottom club of the first. Shaded bands are the divisions. Hover over or tap a dot for the season.

2seasons since 1994/95
0seasons in Serie A
0league titles
0top-four finishes
1promotions
0relegations

Against the money

Not available for Italy: wage bills are not published club by club in one place there, so this is shown for England and France only.

Sources