Competitive Mobility Project

Spain

Rayo Vallecano

2025/26: 8th in LaLiga · 2026/27: LaLiga

How high can Rayo Vallecano realistically go?

Based on finishing 8th in LaLiga in 2025/26

About 3 in 10

Of the 60 times a club finished 8th to 12th in LaLiga between 2004/05 and 2015/16, 20 reached the top four within ten seasons.

20 of 60 (33%); likely range 12%–55%, 21 different clubs.

Reached the top six within ten seasonsabout 5 in 10
32 of 60; range 33%–75%
Stayed up for all of the next five seasonsabout 6 in 10
48 of 85; range 39%–72%

Rayo Vallecano itself: 6 of the last 10 seasons in LaLiga.

How do we know?

We took every season since 2004/05 in which a club finished in the same part of the same league, and followed each club forward. The figure is the share that reached each goal. Ten-year goals use finishes from 2004/05 to 2015/16, five-year goals from 2004/05 to 2020/21, so every case has had the full time to play out; results run to the end of 2025/26.

It describes what happened to clubs in this position, not a forecast for one club. A club with much more money or history than is usual for its position has better chances than the figure suggests, which is why the club's own record is shown underneath.

The likely range is a 95% interval worked out by resampling clubs rather than seasons, because the same club often appears several times. It is wide where only a few clubs have been in a position, and two leagues whose ranges overlap may not really differ. Reserve teams such as Barcelona B or Real Madrid Castilla are left out of these counts, because they cannot be promoted into their first team's division.

Counts: reached the top four within ten seasons: 20 of 60; reached the top six within ten seasons: 32 of 60; stayed up for all of the next five seasons: 48 of 85.

The story so far

Rayo Vallecano has played 29 seasons in the divisions covered here since 1993/94: 18 in LaLiga and 11 in the Segunda División. It has been in LaLiga since 2021/22 (5 seasons), after 2 seasons in the Segunda División. Its best finish was 8th in LaLiga, in 2012/13. Its biggest climb took five seasons: from 13th in the Segunda División in 2016/17 to 12th in LaLiga in 2021/22. It has been promoted 6 times and relegated 6 times.

Final position each seasonRinged dots are titles
2025/262021/222017/182013/142009/102005/062001/021997/981993/941stLaLigaSegunda División
How to read this chart

Every club in the divisions covered is placed on one ladder each season: the champions are 1st, and the top club of the second division comes straight after the bottom club of the first. Shaded bands are the divisions. Hover over or tap a dot for the season.

29seasons since 1993/94
18seasons in LaLiga
0league titles
0top-four finishes
6promotions
6relegations

Against the money

Not available for Spain: wage bills are not published club by club in one place there, so this is shown for England and France only.

Clubs with a similar path

Clubs whose finishing positions over the last 15 seasons were closest to Rayo Vallecano's, with recent seasons counting more.

In Spain

Celta VigoSpain · 6th in LaLiga, 2025/26EspanyolSpain · 11th in LaLiga, 2025/26GetafeSpain · 7th in LaLiga, 2025/26OsasunaSpain · 17th in LaLiga, 2025/26

Elsewhere in Europe

ToulouseFrance · 9th in Ligue 1, 2025/26LorientFrance · 10th in Ligue 1, 2025/26Aston VillaEngland · 4th in the Premier League, 2025/26

Compare Rayo Vallecano with another club

Sources