Competitive Mobility Project

England

Coventry City

2025/26: 1st in the Championship, promoted · 2026/27: Premier League

How high can Coventry City realistically go?

Based on finishing 1st in the Championship in 2025/26 and going up

About 4 in 10

Of the 51 times a club was promoted from the Championship between 2004/05 and 2020/21, 19 stayed up for all of the next five seasons.

19 of 51 (37%); likely range 24%–54%, 30 different clubs.

Reached the top six within ten seasonsabout 1 in 9
4 of 36; range 3%–23%

Coventry City itself: none of the last 10 seasons in the Premier League.

How do we know?

We took every season since 2004/05 in which a club finished in the same part of the same league, and followed each club forward. The figure is the share that reached each goal. Ten-year goals use finishes from 2004/05 to 2015/16, five-year goals from 2004/05 to 2020/21, so every case has had the full time to play out; results run to the end of 2025/26.

It describes what happened to clubs in this position, not a forecast for one club. A club with much more money or history than is usual for its position has better chances than the figure suggests, which is why the club's own record is shown underneath.

The likely range is a 95% interval worked out by resampling clubs rather than seasons, because the same club often appears several times. It is wide where only a few clubs have been in a position, and two leagues whose ranges overlap may not really differ. Reserve teams such as Barcelona B or Real Madrid Castilla are left out of these counts, because they cannot be promoted into their first team's division.

Counts: stayed up for all of the next five seasons: 19 of 51; reached the top six within ten seasons: 4 of 36.

The story so far

Coventry City has played 34 seasons in the divisions covered here since 1992/93: 9 in the Premier League, 17 in the Championship, 7 in League One and 1 in League Two. It has been in the Championship since 2020/21 (6 seasons), after 2 seasons in League One. It goes up to the Premier League for 2026/27. Its best finish was 11th in the Premier League, in 1993/94. Its biggest climb took five seasons: from 6th in League Two in 2017/18 to 5th in the Championship in 2022/23. It has been promoted 3 times and relegated 3 times.

Final position each seasonRinged dots are titles
2025/262021/222017/182013/142009/102005/062001/021997/981993/941stPremier LeagueChampionshipLeague OneLeague Two
How to read this chart

Every club in the divisions covered is placed on one ladder each season: the champions are 1st, and the top club of the second division comes straight after the bottom club of the first. Shaded bands are the divisions. Hover over or tap a dot for the season.

34seasons since 1992/93
9seasons in the Premier League
0league titles
0top-four finishes
3promotions
3relegations

Against the money

No overall verdict: 3 seasons with published wage figures, fewer than the eight needed.

£18mwage bill, 2022/23
38thhighest of 39 clubs with published accounts
5thfinish in the Championship, 2022/23
Where Coventry City finishedWhere its wage bill normally finishes
1st2022/232020/21Premier LeagueChampionship
Season by season
SeasonFinishWage billWage rankPlaces above its money
2022/235th, Championship£18m38th of 39+10.3
2021/2212th, Championship£16m35th of 38+2.2
2020/2116th, Championship£13m37th of 37+2.2
How do we know?

For every season, we compare each club's wage bill with the average in the top two divisions, and work out the finish that wage bill usually brings, allowing for differences between seasons and assuming a bigger wage bill never lowers the expected finish. The gap between that and the actual finish, averaged over the seasons, is the figure above. An overall verdict needs at least eight seasons, and a signed number is given only when the gap is clearly larger than chance.

Wage bills are the staff costs in each club's statutory accounts at Companies House (all staff, not only players), read without any language model and checked against the note's own components and the next year's accounts. Seasons where two readings disagree by more than 2% are left out.

On average, most of a big over-performance fades: clubs that finished at least four places above their money (on average 6.4 places) were +2.0 places the next season, so about 69% of it disappeared and the rest persisted. Some clubs beat their money season after season. It mixes good management, luck and resources the measure cannot see, so it is not a score for how well a club is run.

Clubs with a similar path

Clubs whose finishing positions over the last 15 seasons were closest to Coventry City's, with recent seasons counting more.

In England

MillwallEngland · 3rd in the Championship, 2025/26Bristol CityEngland · 12th in the Championship, 2025/26Preston North EndEngland · 14th in the Championship, 2025/26Luton TownEngland · 7th in League One, 2025/26

Elsewhere in Europe

PisaItaly · 20th in Serie A, 2025/26BurgosSpain · 7th in the Segunda División, 2025/26PauFrance · 9th in Ligue 2, 2025/26

Compare Coventry City with another club

Sources